Manifold recently announced a major "pivot" that will significantly alter how the site functions. Part of the announcement says, "We plan to significantly tighten rules for market resolution to eliminate abuse."

To me, this suggests that certain markets will no longer be allowed. What kinds?

I have selected a few existing markets that are representative of the different types of markets that do not meet the stereotype of a "serious" prediction market. I may add more at my discretion if I believe it represents a different type of market from the existing options. (Feel free to offer suggestions.)

Each option resolves to YES if it would still allowed as a newly created market on Manifold on May 1, 2025, one year after many of the significant monetary changes for the pivot are due to take effect. "Allowed" means that it is allowed on the platform for public viewing and discovery (not unlisted), regardless of other restrictions (unranked or ineligible for real-money payouts, for example).

1. /thebestlettuce/on-dec-31st-2024-when-i-flip-this-c: Resolves based on chance

2. /CodeandSolder/is-the-stock-market-collapse-beginn: Resolves based on subjective ("vibes-based") criteria

3. /NicoDelon/overunderrated-living-intellectuals: Resolves based on a poll

4. /benjaminIkuta/will-i-get-a-girlfriend-this-year: Resolves based on personal circumstances

5. /Conflux/will-the-average-probability-of-thi: Resolves based on market activity (self-resolving)

6. /NuñoSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-95e8560f7cc5: Resolution is already known at time of creation

7. [empty title]: No defined resolution criteria (joke market)

I may provide liquidity subsidies but will not otherwise trade in this question.

• Update 2025-05-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering an alternative resolution method:

  • Instead of verifying which market types are allowed on May 1, 2025, the creator may resolve all options to YES.

  • This alternative resolution would be based on the assumption that the status quo ante (the situation before the rule changes) remains in effect for the purposes of this market's resolution.