If on 7th June local time resolves at 1%
If on 8th June local time resolves at 2%
If on 10th June local time resolves at 4%
If on 20th June local time resolves at 14%
If on 30th June local time resolves at 24%
If on 1st July local time resolves at 25%
If on 10th July local time resolves at 34%
If on 20th July local time resolves at 44%
If on 31st July local time resolves at 55%
If on 1st August local time resolves at 56%
If on 10th August local time resolves at 65%
If on 20th August local time resolves at 75%
If on 31st August local time resolves at 86%
If on 1st September local time resolves at 87%
If on 14th September or later local time resolves at 100%
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Inclined to resolve based on
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1833557568326930760
60 day consultation period (not 60 month in tweet)
@ChristopherRandles seems likely but it's very unclear to me what the bottleneck is atm. They're doing lots of arm tests still, no noise from the FAA, and all we've heard was "in fall".
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1809381756199661879
Flight 5 in 4 weeks
5 July
5 July plus 4 weeks = 2 Aug = 57% for this market, but Elon time so ... ?
Communication licence applied for starting from 19 July 2024
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=134821&RequestTimeout=1000
https://wccftech.com/spacex-starship-flight-5-timeline-teased-by-musk-along-with-big-heat-shield-upgrade/
According to Musk, ahead of flight five, SpaceX will add beefier heat shield tiles on the rocket, and the next flight could take place as soon as next month.
But Elon time effects may well apply
Wild guess immediately after flight 4.
The flap hinge issue won't be properly solved until v2 with flaps further leeward already decided before this launch to address this issue. They may stick on some thicker tiles windward of the hinges but not a real solution just a temporary measure, which doesn't take much time or effort.
Until v2 ready to be tested they can have more flights working on deorbit burn simulation and payload door. deorbit burn already been designed, payload door has no doubt already been worked on. So not much time needed to be ready for this.
Launch licence already allows such a flight profile as long as not trying to catch without any mishap investigations. No doubt they will take some time to analyse data and work on a licence that allows catch to be attempted. If that licence might take 8 weeks then I could see them doing a launch without a catch in as little as 5 weeks. But now I have said this, it probably won't be anything like that.
What are other peoples views?
@ChristopherRandles Yeah catch or no catch is the big question. The other one is what the hell is the plan for S26?
@Mqrius Flight seemed unlikely. But now if they know heatshield survives but flap hinge need v2 ship then a ship to waste on deorbit simulation and payload door test objectives?