Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?
80
170
1.6K
2035
80%
chance

This is a subjective market, so I won't give explicit resolution criteria. But here are a few examples of things that would make a positive resolution likely:

  • If the Centre for Effective Altruism still exists in a meaningful state

  • If the EA Forum is still active and receives regular posts

  • If surveys about effective altruism indicate that there are a meaningful number of EA-identifying people

  • If I personally know 20+ people that actively identify as effective altruists

  • Any other indicator that there are thousands of EA-identifying people

  • An active and thriving community that is essentially the same as the current EA movement but has changed its name for whatever reason

A few things that would not qualify for a positive resolution:

  • Those few weird friends that still cling to EA labels even though most everyone has moved on

  • A movement that advocates for fundamentally different principles from these under the same name of Effective Altruism

Happy to add other examples under these two lists if they come up in the comments.

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20+ people is a very low bar. it eliminates almost all the others most of the time, doesn't it? I think it should be removed to ensure this prediction is about the thing you intend.

@L I wouldn't interpret it as a bar for a positive resolution. It's possible I know 20 people that identify as EAs but still don't consider the movement to exist anymore. But considering that, right now, I don't think I personally know more than 10 people that would identify as EAs, if I know 20 or more I do think that makes it likely that the movement still exists

bought Ṁ30 of YES

The list of "positive resolution likely" things is OR, right? i.e. if any of them happen, the claim would be true?

@StrayClimb Confirmed

I won't bet on this market since it's subjective, but I'll say I'm surprised by how cheap the "Yes" shares are.