In 100 years, will Effective Altruism be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?
33
1kṀ14432123
73%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Conditional on humans still existing in a sort of recognizable society like today's.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?
75% chance
Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade?
66% chance
Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?
66% chance
In 100 years, will Cancel Culture be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?
15% chance
Will Destiny be an effective altruist by the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will research towards time travel be a cause area of Effective Altruism before 2030?
6% chance
Conditional on Effective Altruism lasting for a thousand years, will EAs still say that this was their finest hour?
37% chance
Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?
21% chance
Will Mr. Beast self-identify as an effective altruist by end of 2030?
10% chance
By 2028, will I think Anthropic has been net-good for the world?
56% chance