Will a U.S. House Representative, Senator, or President/Vice President self identify as an effective altruist by the end of 2030? | Manifold

Will a U.S. House Representative, Senator, or President/Vice President self identify as an effective altruist by the end of 2030?

42

1kṀ1211

2031

36%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Edit: Includes the year 2030. Modified to say "end of 2030".

Nov 20, 7:28pm: ~~Will a U.S. House Representative, Senator, or President/Vice President self identify as an effective altruist by 2030?~~ → Will a U.S. House Representative, Senator, or President/Vice President self identify as an effective altruist by the end of 2030?

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Including or excluding those elected in 2030?

predictedNO

@PatMyron Including

What about the standard EA self-identification "so I'm not actually an EA, I just sympathize with some of their ideas. You could perhaps call me EA-adjacent."?

predictedNO

@AndrewG The subject needs to self-identify as EA, so if they say they aren't actually an EA that wouldn't count.

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