Will Mr. Beast self-identify as an effective altruist by end of 2030?
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2031
10%
chance

Resolves positively if, at any point between market creation and close, Mr. Beast (the YouTube personality) self-identifies with the effective altruism movement.

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

I hope not. "Effective altruism" is a horrific philosophy. It was not an accident that over 2 million people had their lives ruined by FTX; the logical outcome of effective altruism is exactly what happened there.

predicts NO

@SteveSokolowski If asked 2 years ago, 90% of apsiring EA's would have told you not to invest your money in Crypto (seriously people, don't do it!) [1].

I am sorry you lost your money Steve, but it has nothing to do with using evidence and reasoning to help the most vulnerable beings on the planet. If you have any money in similar exchanges or digital currencies I strongly recommend you remove it before it falls to a similar fate, just like the many many times this has happened previously, with the vast majority not related to any element of altruism [2].

predicts NO
predicts NO

@ElliotDavies I think you missed my point. I'm not criticizing effective altruists for any stance on cryptocurrency, whether it be positive or negative. EA was not responsible for bad investment advice in purchasing cryptocurrencies and I never lost a single dollar in cryptocurrency investments - I made tens of millions of dollars.

I'm criticizing the philosophy's logical outcome. When you evaluate whether it would be better to help 1 trillion unborn conscious robots or 2 million human victims of FTX, the logical outcome of the philosophy is that one should accept the harm today because it leads to a better outcome tomorrow.

And yes, I know there are some people who draw arbitrary limits to what they should do or should not do, but there is no clear logical way to draw those limits without creating a contradiction in the philosophy. That philosophy encouraged scumbags like Caroline Ellison to do what she did, and as a result, I now have to work an extra 20 years, my friend's kids no longer will go to college, I had to fire 8 people, and 9 family members lost their life savings. One of the people who I fired because my business collapsed has kids with autism and cannot afford health insurance.

I don't think that EA followers get it. They are "extremely online" people who, as you showed there, post theories in forums. The people I know are real people. I see them in person every day. They can talk about nothing else. They lost hundreds of years of work as a direct result of EA philosophies.

This is the legacy effective altruism left on the world. Followers should be ashamed of themselves, as what they have pushed has caused the world to be worse off than if it hadn't existed.

And, if you don't agree with the last statement, then just look at what EA has resulted in as a practical matter to see how stupid the movement's ethos is as an organizing factor. I had $7 million written in a will to donate to EA causes. Now I have nothing, even if I did believe in EA now. EA's actions not only did harm to the world in general, it eliminated most of the potential sources of income that the movement would have had.

In conclusion, I get that you and others want to write off what happened as "rogue" members. But in the real world, it doesn't matter. Organizations need to take aggressive action to craft a responsible message if they want to remain viable, EA did not do that, and now no ordinary person will ever give money to an "EA" cause.

predicts NO

@SteveSokolowski

> I never lost a single dollar in cryptocurrency investments - I made tens of millions of dollars.

Have some self awareness mate. You made money in a ponzi scheme and then lost that money in a ponzi scheme.

> That philosophy encouraged scumbags like Caroline Ellison

The common denomonater in all of these victims of crypto scams (literally >8 large exchanges have failed disatrously) is the CRYPTO. All but 1 did not involve EA.

There's no abstract philosphy papers that say you shouldn't hire an accountant. It's much much more likely they didn't hire an accountant because the crypto space is dodgy and has dodgy norms and dodgy oversight.

> This is the legacy effective altruism left on the world. Followers should be ashamed of themselves, as what they have pushed has caused the world to be worse off than if it hadn't existed.

There's literally entire countries that are now safe from leaded paint (LEEP). There's millions of women that now have access to sufficient iron intake. This is the result of evidence based charities that aim to do the most good.

To be blunt, this reads extremely priveleged.

> Organizations need to take aggressive action to craft a responsible message if they want to remain viable, EA did not do that, and now no ordinary person will ever give money to an "EA" cause.

EA isn't an organisation - but if it was, it should use it's last remaining power to encourage you to take your money out of crypto. Don't say I didn't warn you Steve!

A taste of what could be (from GPT-4):

Title: "I Donated $1,000,000 to the Most Effective Charities in the World!"

[Intro]

Mr. Beast: Hey, what's up, guys? It's Mr. Beast, and today, we're doing something truly extraordinary. We're giving away ONE MILLION DOLLARS to some of the most effective charities in the world! That's right, we're supporting the Effective Altruist movement, which aims to make the biggest positive impact possible by donating to the most effective causes. Let's change some lives!

[Scene 1: Introducing Effective Altruism]

Mr. Beast: So, what is Effective Altruism? Simply put, it's about using evidence and reasoning to determine the most cost-effective ways to help others. We're not just giving away money; we're making sure it goes to the organizations that will use it to do the most good. Trust me, this is going to be epic!

[Scene 2: Choosing the Charities]

Mr. Beast: We've done our research, and we've picked five outstanding charities to support today. They've been vetted by organizations like GiveWell and The Life You Can Save, so we know they're the real deal. Here they are:

1. Against Malaria Foundation (AMF)

2. Schistosomiasis Control Initiative (SCI)

3. GiveDirectly

4. Deworm the World Initiative

5. Helen Keller International's Vitamin A Supplementation Program

Let's get started with our first charity!

[Scene 3: Donating to Against Malaria Foundation]

Mr. Beast: The Against Malaria Foundation provides life-saving mosquito nets to protect people from malaria. Just $2 can buy a net and save a life. We're giving them $200,000 – that's 100,000 nets, and potentially 100,000 lives saved! Boom, donation made! Let's move on to the next one!

[Scene 4: Donating to Schistosomiasis Control Initiative]

Mr. Beast: The Schistosomiasis Control Initiative helps treat kids suffering from parasitic worm infections. These infections can cause severe health problems, but just 50 cents can provide a year's worth of treatment. We're giving them $200,000, which means 400,000 kids will be treated! Donation sent! Next up!

[Scene 5: Donating to GiveDirectly]

Mr. Beast: GiveDirectly is an amazing charity that provides cash transfers to people living in extreme poverty. They're all about empowering people to make their own decisions. We're giving them $200,000, which will make a huge difference for so many families. Done! Let's keep going!

[Scene 6: Donating to Deworm the World Initiative]

Mr. Beast: The Deworm the World Initiative works to improve the health and education of kids by treating parasitic worm infections. Just 30 cents can treat a child for a year. We're giving them $200,000 – that's treatment for over 666,000 kids! Donation complete! On to the last one!

[Scene 7: Donating to Helen Keller International's Vitamin A Supplementation Program]

Mr. Beast: Our final charity, Helen Keller International's Vitamin A Supplementation Program, helps prevent blindness and death in young children by providing essential vitamin A supplements. Just $1 can provide a year's worth of supplements for a child. We're giving them $200,000 – that's 200,000 children who will receive life-saving vitamin A! And the donation is sent! We did it, guys!

[Scene 8: Reflecting on the Impact]

Mr. Beast: Alright, guys, we just donated a total of $1,000,000 to these amazing, effective charities! We've potentially saved lives, improved health, and made a huge impact on countless people around the world. This is what Effective Altruism is all about!

Remember, you can also make a difference by supporting these incredible organizations. Check out the links in the description to learn more about them and how you can contribute.

[Outro]

Mr. Beast: Thank you so much for watching, and a huge shoutout to our sponsors for making this possible. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and share this video to spread the word about Effective Altruism. Let's keep making the world a better place, one donation at a time. Until next time, Mr. Beast out!

predicts YES

Mr Beast is already effective at altruism. He doesn't donate to the best $ / QALY charities - but it's short-sighted to focus on that because his business model is to give away money in entertaining ways to make more money back on the views (via ads and sponsorships). The actual marginal $ / QALY is negative

predicts NO

@Sinclair He reduces people's quality adjusted life years? What?!

Perhaps you meant to write QALY / $, meaning QALY per dollar?

predicts YES

he gets back dollars for each qaly, earning rather than spending

(same as any other profitable charitable startup like Sendwave)

Can this market be treated as a bounty on focusing the EA Eye of Sauron onto MrBeast until he becomes an EA?

predicts NO

@PeterBerggren It sure seems compatible with his general vibe! Imagine if he did an EA video series: "I distributed $1M worth of Malaria bednets!" or "I gave $1M directly to the poorest people in the world!"

@CarsonGale Trick is his videos are about doing things visually. So e.g. if he stood around in a village, giving $ to every passerby, that's debatably "giving directly". (Also for reference: one if his many side-channels is "Beast Philanthropy", where he makes less-views videos documenting less-"crazy/explosive" charitable efforts.)

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