Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade?
65
1kแน€3865
2030
66%
chance

Resolves subjectively.

What this might include is a noticeable split into e.g. longtermist and neartermist. For example, with a large (>10%) minority of members of either groups stopping to identify as part of broader EA generally.

Open to hashing out more objective criteria.

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