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Jul 1, 2027Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years?
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Between the creation of this market and 06/30/2027, 10 people will become billionaires who are not billionaires now who identify as effective altruists.
Here's why I think yes: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/ea-billionaires
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“and if saving a life costs $8,000 dollars, then you’d be saving 125 lives in expectation every day! “
If saving a life costs $8,000 dollars, donating $1b to Biden is killing 125,000 people
That said, it’s a good scam “give me all your money because I will use it for *good* things”; in reality most fortunes have been given away to far worthier causes than what supposedly EA might be (universities, libraries, hospitals were all funded this way)
So prediction: yes, more people will choose to “identify” as effective altruists because it’s good for business and status both
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I think this was my favorite operationalization of this question due to Joel/Linch's bet: https://manifold.markets/NataliaMendonca/will-an-ea-who-had-100m-in-feb-28-2
And another such market: https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/will-there-be-any-new-ea-billionair
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10 such billionaires is a lot! ... or so I thought until I just checked, apparently there are 2.7k billioinaires, ~500 new ones minted in 2021 alone https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/billionaires-by-country
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