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https://www.ft.com/content/7eef99e6-6bd5-4e84-85c1-ec77cc0671af
The Financial Times’s team of crystal ball gazers had their best year for a while in 2023, with only three wrong answers — though we got these pretty wrong. The S&P 500 did not fall by more than 10 per cent, but climbed over 20 per cent (though driven mostly by just seven tech stocks). Europe didn’t experience blackouts, though we said this would happen only in a very cold winter (it wasn’t). And there wasn’t a string of defaults in Africa, though Ethiopia did default this week.

So it seems they don't think they were wrong ie didn't reach 1.5C ?

Did FT write anything about this? It looks like the year was probably above 1.5 according to Berkeley Earth but not other datasets.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), global temperatures are set to hit record highs in the next five years due to greenhouse gas emissions and an impending El Niño event. WMO states a 66% likelihood that the annual average global temperature from 2023 to 2027 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year, with a 98% probability that at least one of these years will be the warmest on record. While not signifying a permanent breach of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target for long-term warming, this warns of more frequent temporary breaches, posing health, food security, and environmental risks. The UK's Met Office forecasts a 32% chance of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold in the five-year mean, indicating a continuous trend away from familiar climate conditions.

Global temperatures set to reach new records in next five years. (2023, May 17). World Meteorological Organization. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/global-temperatures-set-reach-new-records-next-five-years

Global temperatures set to reach new records in next five years

Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño event, according to a new update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

October global temperature

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/pays-2-for-each-001c-october-2023-t

Pays 2% for each 0.01C October 2023 temperature anomaly is above 1.00C per Gistemp versus 1951-1980 base period

50% chance. Data in no smoothing column at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv or https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt (or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data) Resolution If the anomaly versus 1951 to 1980 base period per gistemp LOTI is reported as 1.50C or higher this claim pays 100% If the anomaly versus 1951 to 1980 base period per gistemp LOTI is reported as 1.00C or lower this claim pays 0% If 1.01C claims pays 2% If 1.02C claims pays 4% and so on.

Edit: wrong market oops

https://www.ft.com/content/0341c2d0-b982-47c0-af8f-b415d09c520a

"Global surface air temperatures crossed the crucial 1.5C warming threshold at the start of June, as the world’s oceans hit record-high temperatures for two months running. "

@CarsonGale I see the criteria mentions temporarily, see if that satisfies?

@parhizj I would argue that

"No, but it might as soon as 2024"

"scientists put 50:50 odds on temporarily hitting 1.5C in at least one year in 2022-26"

"forecasters think the whole-year temperature will average 1.2C, but this could change in coming years"

shows it is talking about a whole year rather than days or a month or two. Changing to allowing a shorter period would be moving the goalposts.

Edit: Oops just realized it was in the description 😦

So it has to hit 1.5C for the calendar year...

https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1616156039619178498

https://www.carbonbrief.org/tonga-volcano-eruption-raises-imminent-risk-of-temporary-1-5c-breach/

50:50 across 4 years is a 1/8 chance #~ 17% this market is too optimistic

This is about the annual average, and it's relative to pre-industrial temperatures, right?

@StevenK Given this relates to the Paris Agreement, I believe so