The Financial Times published several predictions for 2023. One of them was the following:
Will the global temperature temporarily reach the 1.5C warming threshold?
"No, but it might as soon as 2024. The planet has already warmed by about 1.1C, comparing average temperatures in 2011-20 with the late 1800s, and by at least 1.2C in recent individual years. With emissions at record levels, scientists put 50:50 odds on temporarily hitting 1.5C in at least one year in 2022-26. With cooling La Nina weather patterns expected to last into early 2023, forecasters think the whole-year temperature will average 1.2C, but this could change in coming years. One year of 1.5C would not mean the Paris Agreement goal had been breached but would take the world much closer." Pilita Clark
Preferably resolves according to reporting from the Financial Times, though I reserve the right to resolve by my own judgement if necessary.
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https://www.ft.com/content/7eef99e6-6bd5-4e84-85c1-ec77cc0671af
The Financial Times’s team of crystal ball gazers had their best year for a while in 2023, with only three wrong answers — though we got these pretty wrong. The S&P 500 did not fall by more than 10 per cent, but climbed over 20 per cent (though driven mostly by just seven tech stocks). Europe didn’t experience blackouts, though we said this would happen only in a very cold winter (it wasn’t). And there wasn’t a string of defaults in Africa, though Ethiopia did default this week.
So it seems they don't think they were wrong ie didn't reach 1.5C ?
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), global temperatures are set to hit record highs in the next five years due to greenhouse gas emissions and an impending El Niño event. WMO states a 66% likelihood that the annual average global temperature from 2023 to 2027 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year, with a 98% probability that at least one of these years will be the warmest on record. While not signifying a permanent breach of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target for long-term warming, this warns of more frequent temporary breaches, posing health, food security, and environmental risks. The UK's Met Office forecasts a 32% chance of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold in the five-year mean, indicating a continuous trend away from familiar climate conditions.
Global temperatures set to reach new records in next five years. (2023, May 17). World Meteorological Organization. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/global-temperatures-set-reach-new-records-next-five-years
October global temperature
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/pays-2-for-each-001c-october-2023-t
Edit: wrong market oops
https://www.ft.com/content/0341c2d0-b982-47c0-af8f-b415d09c520a
"Global surface air temperatures crossed the crucial 1.5C warming threshold at the start of June, as the world’s oceans hit record-high temperatures for two months running. "
@CarsonGale I see the criteria mentions temporarily, see if that satisfies?
@parhizj I would argue that
"No, but it might as soon as 2024"
"scientists put 50:50 odds on temporarily hitting 1.5C in at least one year in 2022-26"
"forecasters think the whole-year temperature will average 1.2C, but this could change in coming years"
shows it is talking about a whole year rather than days or a month or two. Changing to allowing a shorter period would be moving the goalposts.
Edit: Oops just realized it was in the description 😦
So it has to hit 1.5C for the calendar year...