In which year will global warming reach 1.5 degrees Celsius?
12
1.9kṀ3041
2040
13%
2031
12%
2030
12%
2032
7%
2029
6%
2028
5%
Not in this century
4%
2026
4%
2037
4%
2038
4%
2036
3%
2040
3%
2039
3%
2034
3%
2035
3%
Later this century
3%
2033
3%
Other
3%
2027
2%
2025

This market will resolve according to the Global surface temperature chart on Wikipedia’s English page on Climate Change. Specifically, the market will resolve to the year in which the red line in the chart (’20-year-smoothing’) first reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius. This approach aligns with the IPCC definition of the 1.5 degree target. Should the chart be no longer available on Wikipedia, the market will resolve using another neutral source that tracks average long-term warming compared to pre-industrial temperatures.

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Should the chart be no longer available on Wikipedia, the market will resolve using another neutral source that tracks average long-term warming compared to pre-industrial temperatures.

Could you say more about which? It seems fairly likely that whatever graph Wikipedia replaces that graph with won't have a 20 year average, and the exact choice of source is going to matter a lot to the individual resolution year.

Following a simple linear extrapolation from the linked graph:

y_T = y_1 + (T - T_1) / ((T_1 - T_0) / (y_1 - y_0))

= 2024 + (1.5 - 1.25) / ((1.25 - 0.35) / (2024 - 1976))

= ~2037
with a margin of error of a few years to account for unexpected acceleration/deceleration

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