This market predicts the month in which the 30-year global warming trend will first reach 1.42°C — or higher — above pre-industrial levels. The 30-year trend refers to the average global temperature increase calculated over a rolling 30-year period, compared to baseline temperatures recorded before industrialization (1850–1900).

The market will resolve based on data provided by Copernicus, the European Union’s Earth Observation Programme. The relevant data can be found on the website of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, specifically in the Global Warming chart located between the "News" and "Case Studies" sections. At the time of market creation the latest data on the chart displayed 1.36°C for October 2024.

The resolution date is set to align with the next answer scheduled for resolution (currently February 2026). It will adjust dynamically to to always reflect the next scheduled answer.

For comparison:

• Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): New Data Source for Resolution Criteria

  • Resolution data will now be accessed through the Application page on the Copernicus site.

  • Use the updated link: https://apps.climate.copernicus.eu/global-temperature-trend-monitor/?tab=plot

  • This change supersedes the previous instructions regarding locating the data on the main website.

• Update 2025-03-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Mechanics Clarification

  • Rolling Resolution: If a month is confirmed to have reached the 1.42°C threshold (YES), all other months will instantly resolve as NO.

  • Ongoing Activation: If a month is resolved as NO and the data for other months is still inconclusive, those months will remain active.