Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.
For 2023, Berkeley Earth reported global warming was 1.54 °C.
This question resolves YES if Berkeley Earth reports that annual average warming is equal to or higher than 1.50 degrees Celsius in 2025.
For easy reference, here are Berkeley Earth's past numbers going back to 2010:
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https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2025/
The global annual average for 2025 in the Berkeley Earth analysis is estimated as 1.44 ± 0.09 °C (2.60 ± 0.17 °F) above the average during the period 1850 to 1900, which is traditionally used a reference for the pre-industrial period.
@StevenK It now gives 2023 as under 1.5 as well. I'm still not sure what's going on with that. Maybe they shifted the baseline. But it seems like a clear enough NO resolution.
@StevenK 2023 +1.54C down to +1.47C is a difference of 0.07C. In 2023 they claimed the margin of error was 0.06C but essentially this is within the margin of error. That level of difference could be easily be weeding out some anomalous station temperature records that have come to light recently or some refinements to the preindustrial estimates. They have also increased margin of error to 0.09C for 2025 indicating less confidence in their figures perhaps because more anomalous data is being detected. They haven't changed the baseline period which is still from 1850 to 1900. So I don't see this as having any implications for how this question should resolve simply based on the 1.44C for 2025 being less than 1.5C.
@ChristopherRandles I'm not seeing the 1.47C. Would you be able to screenshot and link to where I should look?
@cash 1.47 is implied by:
> In Berkeley Earth’s analysis the global mean temperature in 2025 is estimated to have been 1.44 ± 0.09 °C (2.60 ± 0.17 °F) above the average temperature from 1850-1900, a period often used as a pre-industrial baseline for global temperature targets. This is ~0.08 °C (~0.14 °F) cooler than the previous record high observed in 2024, and also 0.03 °C (0.05 °F) cooler than 2023.
@cash Not directly stated but
In Berkeley Earth’s analysis the global mean temperature in 2025 is estimated to have been 1.44 ± 0.09 °C (2.60 ± 0.17 °F) above the average temperature from 1850-1900, a period often used as a pre-industrial baseline for global temperature targets. This is ~0.08 °C (~0.14 °F) cooler than the previous record high observed in 2024, and also 0.03 °C (0.05 °F) cooler than 2023.
1.44 +0.03 C = 1.47C
That image looks like the peak is at about 1.47C to me.
Berkeley Earth now seems to be giving a lower number than 1.54 for 2023 (see the final graph here) with a correspondingly lower estimate for the probability of exceeding 1.5 in 2025. Anyone know what's going on?