Resolve according to the "mean" average temperature reported in this webpage
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/temperature-anomaly
resolves to 50% in terms of a tie.
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Panic selling a bit because of resolution risk. Please give OWID until at least the question close to update or fix their graph. https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-average-global-temperature-22cd5e205ca0#h3tqu1qnwtq
@StevenK Just to be explicit to people considering betting: the current data being shown on OWID are a bug, as detailed by JRP in the above link.
@AlanTennant Well if you think it is wrong to give it such certainty then take a (bigger than 10 mana) punt.
I wouldn't recommend it though as the experts agree, like most years, not this year. The trend is upwards but there is "noise" so most years are not record high temp years unless they have an El Nino helping them. We also have 8 months of data for the year so far.