This market predicts the month in which the 30-year global warming trend will first reach 1.41°C — or higher — above pre-industrial levels. The 30-year trend refers to the average global temperature increase calculated over a rolling 30-year period, compared to baseline temperatures recorded before industrialization (1850–1900).

The market will resolve based on data provided by Copernicus, the European Union’s Earth Observation Programme. The relevant data can be found on the website of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, specifically in the Global Warming chart located between the "News" and "Case Studies" sections. At the time of market creation the latest data on the chart displayed 1.36°C for October 2024.

The resolution date is set to align with the next answer scheduled for resolution (currently October 2025). It will adjust dynamically to always reflect the next scheduled answer.

For comparison:

• Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Data Source Update:

  • The resolution data is now sourced from the Application section on the Copernicus Global Temperature Trend Monitor.

  • Access the updated data at this link.

  • This update clarifies that the main website is not current for resolution data.