When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Question

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve when the World Health Organization officially declares Guinea worm disease eradicated, unless something weird happens.

WHO must make a formal declaration of global eradication, which requires 0 cases for 3 consecutive years.

To be declared free of dracunculiasis, a country is required to have reported zero human cases and animal infections for at least 3 consecutive years, during which active surveillance has been maintained.

After this period, an international certification team visits the country to assess the adequacy of the surveillance system and to review records of investigations regarding rumoured cases or infected animals and subsequent actions taken.

Indicators such as access to improved drinking-water sources in infected areas are examined and assessments are conducted in villages to confirm the absence of transmission. Risks of reintroduction of the disease are also assessed. Finally, a report is submitted to the International Commission for the Certification of Dracunculiasis Eradication (ICCDE) for review.

In the (quite unlikely) case that there is doubt over whether the disease is really eradicated (as in, not coming back in humans in the future), I'll try to resolve in the spirit of whether it seems obvious that there won't be any future cases. I may wait for consensus, and if consensus as to the earliest eradication date does not exist I will resolve to my personal estimate. Please make arguments in the description if this happens.

In the case that it is still around by 2050, I (if I remember that this exists) will resolve this market to 2050.

Background

Guinea worm disease (GWD) is a parasitic infection that was once widespread across Africa and Asia. Through coordinated global efforts led by The Carter Center and WHO, cases have dropped from 3.5 million annually in the 1980s to just 14 human cases in 2023. The disease now persists in only a few countries, primarily in Africa.

Current challenges include:

Animal infections, particularly in dogs

Ongoing conflicts in affected regions limiting access

Need for continued surveillance and community interventions

Limited resources in affected areas

For detailed information about the effort by the Carter Center, see the Guinea Worm Wrap Ups.

Manifold Markets · Answer

The current median estimate is 0.3964031866787439 according to Manifold Markets prediction market (as of Apr 18, 2026).