Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?
Basic
10
3.9k
2026
41%
chance

This question resolves positively if GiveWell gives a grant or publishes a recommendation that grants be given to fund eave tubes to control malariaon or before December 31, 2026. Or if a charity undertaking the same work is designated a "Top Charity" or a recipient of "All Funds" before the deadline. This resolves according to a statement from GiveWell or a credible news organisation.

It resolves "No" otherwise.

The most likely resolution mechanism is that GiveWell writes "yes" in the column "Have we recommended one or more grants to support this program?" in the “Eave tubes to control malaria” row of the GiveWell program reviews spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) or a spreadsheet that supersedes it.

N.B. Eave tubes can be distributed for the purpose of malaria reduction or other purposes. The funds must go towards the distribution of eave tubes to control malaria, not a charity that largely does other work.

-- Note --

Can you find issues with this question. It's kind of flawed but I don't know how to fix it.

-- Background --

GiveWell has recommended grants to over 10 charities over the years. They are currently investigating 12 charity areas with other areas of research in the pipeline including Eave tubes to control malaria.

The following is taken directly from GiveWell’s explanation of the topic

“Eaves are the gaps between the roof and the walls of a house. Eave tubes are tubes with insecticide-treated netting that are inserted into eaves. The insecticide is designed to kill mosquitoes when they try to enter the house.

A 2019 Cochrane review of housing interventions to prevent malaria transmission (Furnival-Adams et al. 2021) indicated that while one initial trial of eave tubes demonstrated reduced mosquito density, additional research on the impact of eave tubes on clinical malaria is needed. We conducted a light review and identified one ongoing randomized trial examining the impact of eave tubes on cases of clinical malaria, scheduled to be completed in November 2020.

We will revisit this intervention when evidence on its effect on clinical malaria becomes available.“

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Estimated a 24% base rate among programs GiveWell listed in 2017 but had not given a grant too yet (https://www.givewell.org/research/intervention-reports/august-2017-version)

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