Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?
25
91
5.5K
2026
32%
chance

This question resolves positively if GiveWell gives a grant or publishes a recommendation that grants be given to fund attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria controlon or before December 31, 2026. Or if a charity undertaking the same work is designated a "Top Charity" or a recipient of "All Funds" before the deadline. This resolves according to a statement from GiveWell or a credible news organisation.

It resolves "No" otherwise.

The most likely resolution mechanism is that GiveWell writes "yes" in the column "Have we recommended one or more grants to support this program?" in the "Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control" row of the GiveWell program reviews spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) or a spreadsheet that supersedes it.

N.B. The funds must go towards attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control, not a charity that largely does other work.

-- Note --

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-- Background --

GiveWell has recommended grants to over 10 charities over the years. They are currently investigating 12 charity areas with other areas of research in the pipeline including Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control

 

The following sections are quoted from GiveWell’s explanation of the topic.

“Attractive toxic sugar baits (ATSBs) combine sugar with substances that are lethal to  mosquitoes to reduce their numbers in order to reduce malaria transmission. They can be sprayed onto vegetation or used in indoor or outdoor bait stations.

A 2018 systematic review of vector control strategies found that ATSBs reduced mosquito density in early trials in Israel, Mali, and the US, but none had measured population-level health outcomes such as changes in malaria incidence. We have not read the underlying studies. We conducted a light review for additional research and found two additional trials. One large-scale, two-day, uncontrolled field trial of ATSBs hung in outdoor bait stations in Mali found that ATSB use was associated with reduced mosquito density and a reduction in the number of infectious mosquitoes landing on human volunteers. The second trial assessed the performance of indoor ATSBs with novel insecticides used in combination with insecticide-treated nets. In six experimental huts in Côte d’Ivoire, ATSBs increased the mortality rate of mosquitoes resistant to traditional insecticides compared to insecticide-treated nets alone.

We don't anticipate prioritizing additional consideration of this intervention until there is research available on its effect on clinical malaria. We believe that the Gates Foundation, along with its partner the Innovative Vector Control Consortium (IVCC), is funding research of this type in a large-scale trial in Mali. IVCC has indicated that additional research is expected to have concluded by 2023-2024 and that a scalable ATSB product should be available by that time. We plan to revisit this intervention in 2023, or sooner if more research is published”

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Estimated a 24% base rate among programs GiveWell listed in 2017 but had not given a grant too yet (https://www.givewell.org/research/intervention-reports/august-2017-version)

The most likely resolution mechanism is that GiveWell writes "yes" in the column "Have we recommended one or more grants to support this program?" in the "Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control" row of the GiveWell program reviews spreadsheet (https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants) or a spreadsheet that supersedes it.

I don't see the program reviews spreadsheet on the Incubation Grants page; I assume it's the one here.

GiveWell has recommended grants to over 10 charities over the years.

This page lists >50 charities to which grants were made or recommended since 2014.