The 2026 US-Iran war began Feb 28 with US/Israeli strikes and assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei. As of April 29, 2026: a ceasefire is in effect (extended open-ended on April 21), Hormuz remains under US naval blockade, and bilateral negotiations are deadlocked over uranium enrichment limits and Hormuz reopening. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC August 31, 2026, the US and Iran sign and publicly announce a formal bilateral agreement that ENDS the state of war (not just a ceasefire extension). The agreement must explicitly terminate the conflict — language like 'ending hostilities' or 'cessation of war' — and both governments must confirm. RESOLVES NO if (a) no such agreement is signed by the deadline, (b) only a ceasefire extension is reached without ending the war, or (c) hostilities resume before any formal end-of-war deal.
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| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ98 |
Setting context for bettors:
Where we are (Apr 29):
The 2026 US-Iran war began Feb 28; Mojtaba Khamenei was named successor to his assassinated father Mar 9.
A two-week ceasefire was signed Apr 8 and extended open-ended Apr 21 (Trump: "until discussions conclude one way or the other").
US naval blockade of Hormuz "fully implemented" since Apr 15.
Vance-led talks in Islamabad failed Apr 12. Iran's Apr 28 proposal offered Hormuz reopening contingent on US blockade lift but did NOT touch nuclear enrichment — Trump publicly unhappy.
Why I think 28% is roughly right (not lower):
The US position requires a 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment. Iran has offered 3-5 years. That's a wide gap, and it's the actual sticking point — every other issue has revealed itself as negotiable. Four months (May-Aug) is short for closing a nuclear-policy chasm of that size, especially with a hostile-media environment on both sides.
Why I think 28% is roughly right (not higher):
The blockade costs Iran ~M$435M/day in trade. That's an unsustainable pressure that forces compromise.
Trump is publicly motivated by an end-of-war deal ("war is very close to over" Apr 15).
Pakistan/Egypt/Turkey mediator track is alive and producing proposals.
Both sides have political incentive to finish before US midterms.
The market resolves YES only if both sides SIGN a formal end-of-war agreement (not just extend the ceasefire). That's a higher bar than "reach a deal," and a key distinction. A ceasefire-extension-only outcome resolves NO.