Recession in 2024?

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Will there be two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth after revisions in 2024?

This includes spillover from the last quarter of 2023, so the ones that count would be:

2023 Q4 negative Q1 negative

Q1 negative Q2 negative

Q2 negative Q3 negative

Q3 negative Q4 negative

Resolving based on FRED US Real GDP series, after revisions. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1#0

Update 2024-19-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market will be resolved early if Q1-Q3 2024 are confirmed positive in their 3rd estimate releases from the BEA, without waiting for Q4 data
- This early resolution is possible because no additional revisions to Q1-Q3 are expected before the Q4 third estimate would be released

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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The 3rd estimate from the BEA is released now and is positive:

https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-corporate-profits-revised-estimate-and-gdp-1

Since Q1, Q2, Q3 are all positive after the 3rd release, it should be possible to resolve this market early.

I originally stated that I would wait until the 3rd revision of Q4, however to my knowledge there will be no additional new estimate, annual revision, or comprehensive revision to Q1-3 within that time frame. So I think it's safe to resolve now.

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Interesting price action going on!

@Cactus how long will you wait for revisions?

@chrisjbillington I will wait until the 3rd estimate for Q4 2024 is released, which should be sometime around the end of March 2025, plus some delay for FRED to reflect the updated figure.

Will you resolve early if the third estimate of Q3 2024 shows positive growth?

No because there may be revisions

EDIT: check below comments

bought Ṁ500 NO

Uh, to clarify - if Q1, Q2, and Q3 are all positive than it will end up resolving No eventually?

If Q1, Q2, and Q3 are all positive after the 3rd revision (which I think is the final one?) then yeah it should resolve to NO, could probably be done early in that case

Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Looks like Q3 3rd estimate is set to release on December 19, at which point I may resolve early if it's positive and Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2024 (Third Estimate) (set to release on Sept 26) is also positive

For where? UK, USA, Europe, Asia, China, Russia, etc?

@DanielPugh USA

@Cactus might be an idea to mention that, as otherwise would assume it included a recession in any country, which would change the odds...if e.g. there is a recession in Russia or Argentina...

@DanielPugh I added the FRED link which should make things less ambiguous

@Cactus Can you add US to the title? Manifold is a prediction website used by people all over the world

predictedNO

So this happened in 2020 and in 2022 but before that it must have been 2008/2009?

@SophusCorry yeah

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