Will there be two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth after revisions in 2024?

This includes spillover from the last quarter of 2023, so the ones that count would be:

2023 Q4 negative Q1 negative

Q1 negative Q2 negative

Q2 negative Q3 negative

Q3 negative Q4 negative

Resolving based on FRED US Real GDP series, after revisions. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1#0

• Update 2024-19-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market will be resolved early if Q1-Q3 2024 are confirmed positive in their 3rd estimate releases from the BEA, without waiting for Q4 data

  • This early resolution is possible because no additional revisions to Q1-Q3 are expected before the Q4 third estimate would be released