Will there be two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth after revisions in 2024?
This includes spillover from the last quarter of 2023, so the ones that count would be:
2023 Q4 negative Q1 negative
Q1 negative Q2 negative
Q2 negative Q3 negative
Q3 negative Q4 negative
Resolving based on FRED US Real GDP series, after revisions. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1#0
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@chrisjbillington I will wait until the 3rd estimate for Q4 2024 is released, which should be sometime around the end of March 2025, plus some delay for FRED to reflect the updated figure.
@Cactus might be an idea to mention that, as otherwise would assume it included a recession in any country, which would change the odds...if e.g. there is a recession in Russia or Argentina...
@Cactus Can you add US to the title? Manifold is a prediction website used by people all over the world