Recession in 2024?

Will there be two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth after revisions in 2024?

This includes spillover from the last quarter of 2023, so the ones that count would be:

2023 Q4 negative Q1 negative

Q1 negative Q2 negative

Q2 negative Q3 negative

Q3 negative Q4 negative

Resolving based on FRED US Real GDP series, after revisions.

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Interesting price action going on!

@Cactus how long will you wait for revisions?

@chrisjbillington I will wait until the 3rd estimate for Q4 2024 is released, which should be sometime around the end of March 2025, plus some delay for FRED to reflect the updated figure.

For where? UK, USA, Europe, Asia, China, Russia, etc?

@Cactus might be an idea to mention that, as otherwise would assume it included a recession in any country, which would change the odds...if e.g. there is a recession in Russia or Argentina...

@DanielPugh I added the FRED link which should make things less ambiguous

@Cactus Can you add US to the title? Manifold is a prediction website used by people all over the world

predicts NO

So this happened in 2020 and in 2022 but before that it must have been 2008/2009?