Was the US already in a recession in July 2024?
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45
αΉ11k2025
5%
chance
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1M
ALL
July 2024 unemployment data triggered the Sahm rule, which is an indicator that the US is in a recession.
This market resolves YES if the NBER declares, before August 2025 (US eastern time), that the US entered a recession that began or was ongoing in July 2024.
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