Will a recession start in 2024 conditional on the following oil prices?
Basic
6
Ṁ1582026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
34%
WTI oil prices hitting >= $100 at any point in 2024
25%
WTI oil prices never reach $100 in 2024
First contract resolves N/A if oil prices never hit $100 in 2024; second contract resolves N/A if oil prices ever hit $100 in 2024. Otherwise, the market resolves YES if by the end of 2025 it is declared that a recession started at any point in 2024, and resolves NO on December 31, 2025 if no recession has been declared yet.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
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