Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?
closes 2026


Resolves yes if any time before 01/01/2026 it is revealed that a major AI lab (OpenAI, Deepmind, Anthropic, etc) believed they had AGI internally before October 2023.

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MatthiasPortzel avatar
Matthias Portzelbought Ṁ100 of NO

YES traders, what company do you think believes they already have AGI? OpenAI? Google?

Trifalcon avatar
Trifalconbought Ṁ10 of NO

I’m betting NO based on these two vague judgements:

  1. AGI feels like fantasy to me. That’s not a reasoned opinion; that’s how I feel. However, I also think that it makes a lot of sense to judge AGI as unlikely to have been developed at this early stage.

  2. Although I do agree with the markets that it’s more likely that an AI lab thinks they’ve achieved AGI than that they actually have, I have the vague idea that people at AI labs are “smart” and that they wouldn’t have such an erroneous belief. This is shakier than 1, and I understand people betting this market up on the grounds of human fallibility.

Any comments/ things I haven’t considered?

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

Resolves based on the views of lab leadership presumably?

1 reply
dmayhem93 avatar
dmayhem93predicts YES

@MartinRandall That'd work, whatever would make it into an official stance of the organization.

dmayhem93 avatar
dmayhem93bought Ṁ0 of YES
1 reply