YES traders, what company do you think believes they already have AGI? OpenAI? Google?

https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/16sdu6w/rip_jimmy_apples/k2aroaw/

I’m betting NO based on these two vague judgements:

1. AGI feels like fantasy to me. That’s not a reasoned opinion; that’s how I feel. However, I also think that it makes a lot of sense to judge AGI as unlikely to have been developed at this early stage.

2. Although I do agree with the markets that it’s more likely that an AI lab thinks they’ve achieved AGI than that they actually have, I have the vague idea that people at AI labs are “smart” and that they wouldn’t have such an erroneous belief. This is shakier than 1, and I understand people betting this market up on the grounds of human fallibility.

Any comments/ things I haven’t considered?

Resolves based on the views of lab leadership presumably?

@MartinRandall That'd work, whatever would make it into an official stance of the organization.

https://twitter.com/sama/status/1705752292484624863 hmmm

@dmayhem93