Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?


Resolves yes if any time before 01/01/2026 it is revealed that a major AI lab (OpenAI, Deepmind, Anthropic, etc) believed they had AGI internally before October 2023.

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bought Ṁ250 of YES

Problem: the term "AGI" was already ambiguous, and suffered of goalpost moving. I'm betting some YES due to the view, held by some, that GPT is already AGI.

predicts YES

Given the original tweet got deleted, here's a screenshot of a screenshot from the account, for posterity:

bought Ṁ1,099 of YES


bought Ṁ100 YES from 30% to 32%
bought Ṁ100 of YES

optimal policy achieved?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

YES traders, what company do you think believes they already have AGI? OpenAI? Google?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I’m betting NO based on these two vague judgements:

  1. AGI feels like fantasy to me. That’s not a reasoned opinion; that’s how I feel. However, I also think that it makes a lot of sense to judge AGI as unlikely to have been developed at this early stage.

  2. Although I do agree with the markets that it’s more likely that an AI lab thinks they’ve achieved AGI than that they actually have, I have the vague idea that people at AI labs are “smart” and that they wouldn’t have such an erroneous belief. This is shakier than 1, and I understand people betting this market up on the grounds of human fallibility.

Any comments/ things I haven’t considered?

Resolves based on the views of lab leadership presumably?

predicts YES

@MartinRandall That'd work, whatever would make it into an official stance of the organization.

bought Ṁ0 of YES