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Same question, but for 2024:

This is a funny analysis of Tether red flags. I'm too dumb to understand it all, but it sounds plausible. Still I fear Tether will survive yet.

https://cryptadamus.substack.com/p/the-tetherers-apprentice?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/08/03/traders-ditch-usdt-on-curve-uniswap-pushing-key-exchange-pools-into-imbalance/

Also just a comment, not a resolution. But a neat summary of red flags. But also no way to make a time prediction from this:

https://protos.com/tether-transparency-a-lesson-in-lying/

@uair01 Yeah, I've been continually impressed by Tether's ability to be obviously fraudulent and yet maintain its peg regardless, even though it seems like the major players are all aware of it.

On which exchange?

@xolith As the criteria indicate, this market will resolve based on coinmarketcap closing prices.

Just a comment. Not a resolution:

https://twitter.com/ParrotCapital/status/1686426340545925120?s=19

Related https://manifold.markets/duck/will-tether-usdt-trade-under-07-in

Does this mean that it drops below the value on the daily line chart, or the daily candlestick chart? (The latter is a much lower bar)

@jonsimon line chart (market specifies closing price)

Yes the link in the description is annoyingly changed now, it used to be a table explicitly showing the closing price. I'll try to extrapolate whatever that table showed.