Exactly six months after May 1st 2024 I will calculate the returns of these choices, and the five with the best ROI will resolve evenly (20% if 5 options, 25% if 4 options, etc)
An option must make a positive ROI, otherwise it resolves NO
Suggest options in the comments below
I reserve the right to refuse any suggestion
Spreadsheet to track Here
See: /strutheo/financial-advice-which-investment-w-8a3491b50cf6
Related questions
Is this https://kalshi.com/markets/tiktoksell/congress-passes-law-to-force-tiktok-sale? This market is already closed, does that make it NO? (You can't N/A an option in a multiple choice, right?
There's also https://kalshi.com/markets/tiktokban/us-bans-tiktok, which is about the US, not congress.
interesting this is so high up, but not on the main one i am investing from
set up a spreadsheet to help track this and the other related markets: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s1OxlwEalnadLVi8z0OMdV-tToKSRUnu8NpE52AF1hQ/edit#gid=0
@strutheo Part of the description seems missing. Remind me how it goes again?
At some exact time, whales will manipulate the market and choose ten of the investments trading at 0% for you to buy; everything else will immediately resolve NO, and then you will resolve only the five best performing ones to 20% each. Is that right, and what's the exact time?
@HarrisonNathan i am not doing the investments on this one, this one is no longer whalebait just a normal market, ill keep track of the prices on may 1st and 6mo after.
i am using this to inform my investments here:
@strutheo Okay, so I will make recommendations on that one at the end of the month.
But I am now totally confused as to how this market resolves.
@strutheo "Exactly six months after May 1st 2024 I will calculate the returns of those ten choices"
What are "those ten choices" now, if it's not whalebait?
@traders thank you for all the help - i am working on a new version of this market
in the meantime i will keep this one open, but i am removing the profit incentive and some other whalebait aspects. it is now just a normal market: 'which five investments will give the best return 6 months after may 1st'
This is whalebait right? By betting up a particular option, you increase the probability that it will be among the top 10, and it's only possible to resolve with positive probability if that happens.
@strutheo The fundamental problem is that if I buy particular options up or down with a large amount of mana, that makes those options respectively more or less likely to resolve with a higher percentage. I'm pretty sure this is what is meant by the "Market is self-referential" criterion in the mod guidelines for unranking a market, since it advantages whales in leagues to have a market where they can use lots of their mana and cause those trades to be profitable as a self-fulfilling prophecy.
@strutheo As an example, you could change the resolution criteria to say that you would resolve the 5 best-performing investments options to 20%, regardless of whether they were in the top 10 options on this market. Then the manifold market would just be predicting the real-world price performances alone.
@BoltonBailey but thats no fun, how would i tie it to actual investments. how can i get people to propose and vote on options in a probabilistic manner without it being whalebait?
@BoltonBailey I think it's not entirely whalebait because of two things:
1) if the investment has a negative return, it resolves to 0% regardless
2) of the top 10 picked, only the 5 with the best return resolve YES
I'm not entirely sure what happens if 10 investments are selected that ALL have negative returns lol...
But yes, I kind of agree this market is pretty easily manipulateable because of this
@benshindel @BoltonBailey i know there is no way to penalize traders outside of losing mana, so i hoped adding incentives on the 'correct' side would help with this.
@strutheo I think like I said earlier, you could just have this market resolve to the top 5 regardless of whether you purchased them or not...? And then make a separate market after selecting 10?
Or you could say that you would pick 10 of the top 20 options according to your judgment? And otherwise keep market the same (I actually think this is a pretty good option)
Or you could say you would pick the top 10 options but at a random time within a time window, which would make this resistant to last-minute whalebiting (I also think this is a decent option)
@BoltonBailey do you think these are sufficient to avoid being whalebait and de-listing?
@benshindel or what if i invested based on the percentage allocation of the options i added...? and then people are trying to optimize for roi over time AND amount put in?
@strutheo Perhaps I don't understand what is going on with the "If there is any real profit, I will share 5% of it" part. Are you just venmoing people actual dollars here, or converting the money to mana and sending that? Neither of those affect profits though, so I don't think that factors in at all.
@BoltonBailey havent decided yet, depends on TOS, but yes the ACTUAL profit i would send to the 5 best traders on both markets profit leaderboards. (either in cash or mana idk)
@strutheo Ok so it seems like you can just resolve a market with every option being considered and then separately send the money/mana to the best performers, is that not what you're going for somehow?
@BoltonBailey i wanted to have people trading on this the whole 6 months predicting the outcome too
i see what you mean about all the positives being on one side, and very little risk. trying to think of more ways to mitigate that
@BoltonBailey the idea of this was to source all the ideas and have markets determine the investment split mainly
@strutheo I mean after the May 1st cutoff, it seems fine for this to be ranked, since at that point it wouldn't be whalebait in any way.
@strutheo I assume it counts for leagues in the months it which it is ranked and not in the months when it's not.
@BoltonBailey ok. i do want to make the accuracy better and avoid people betting up crazy options before the may1 cutoff though... so idk. maybe have to remake this. ugh
@BoltonBailey You said at the beginning that this being unranked incentivizes worse trades, I'm not sure how that's true, frankly it incentivizes better trades because there is not the external source of leagues rewards distorting incentives, right? Does unranking do something other than affect leagues?
@BoltonBailey maybe i dont get how ranking works then. i'd assume unranked stuff would have people making more joke bets, especially if the reward is possibly real money and they dont have a risk of losing league points now
@strutheo I see, perhaps that's true. Sorry about all this, I'll set a reminder to rerank this in may if that's possible.
@BoltonBailey i guess i should just come up with another version at this point?ill brainstorm in the discord