This question will resolve according to CoinMarketCap. Single trades on Kraken or you selling 1/100k BTC for $1 to your friend don't count.
Thresholds resolve whenever they are hit, with the explicit definition: "price of BTC at any point in time in April" <= threshold <= "price of BTC at any point in time in April".
The relevant timezone is UTC. All thresholds that aren't hit until May 1st, 2024, 00:00 UTC, will resolve as NO.
I've set up notifications for these (with a delay), but feel free to tag me in the comments if a threshold is hit. Mods are explicitly entitled to resolve if they choose to do so.
I might add more options later on.
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ804 | |
| 2 | Ṁ703 | |
| 3 | Ṁ121 | |
| 4 | Ṁ71 | |
| 5 | Ṁ61 |
@Lion Um, what? That's not clarifying. That's changing the resolution criteria to something quite different. I made a substantial bet on the understanding you meant after April 18th when you said after April 18th.
@AndrewHebb Sorry for the mistake with the time zones. However, I believe it's quite obvious that I wouldn't add an option that could already be resolved.
@AndrewHebb That's the time the option was created. Also, the low happened last night, April 18 at 10:30 PM for me. This is how this market has always worked: after a level gets hit, it's available to reopen after some price distance has developed. This is the 5th time we "reopen" an already visited price. Can only resolve YES if hit (again) after the new option is created, can't be YES right from creation.
@AndrewHebb It appears in the diagram. The time is displayed upon clicking the option. You've received a notification at the time the option was added.
When the probability sits at 35% more than 15 hours after the price has been reached on a popular market like this, and with alerts set up for this, it becomes evident that it isn't correct, or at least warrants further investigation before trading.
Currently, it stands at 85%, so selling isn't a concern.
I won't resolve based on a hit before market creation.
@Lion Although I'm benefitting from Andrew's misfortune I agree you shouldn't change the criteria after someone has traded. In the future perhaps add the condition "only prices after answer creation count" to the description.
@deagol Yeah, I don't check that (daily). I've a notification/alert for these thresholds (from another provider), but I haven't received a notification. The low is completely fine.
@Lion the existence of the "2nd attempt" contract seems to imply that it will only resolve if the threshold is hit again after some start time. Can you clarify what exactly that start time is?
@IsaacCarruthers The 70k threshold was hit right at the opening on April 1st, and resolved accordingly. This second attempt simply asks if it'll happen again this month.
@IsaacCarruthers What Daniel says. You can see the exact start time by marking the answer and by clicking on the created time. Everything from then on counts.
