I'm afraid that my favorite analyst is right, but that it will take years to prove him right:

The Cryptocalypse Chronicles | Michel de Cryptadamus | Substack

Model says NO for August:

I can't get historical data without signing up for Kraken, so I use this:

Tether USDt USD (USDT-USD) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance

Things may happen to break Tether:

Tether and sanctions: what’s coming for Paolo’s beautiful launderette – Amy Castor

But an extrapolation says NO for August:

57 2024-07-28 0.999127

58 2024-07-29 0.999106

59 2024-07-30 0.999031

60 2024-07-31 0.998890

61 2024-08-01 0.998919

Model says NO for 2024:

215 2025-01-02 0.998897

216 2025-01-03 0.999039

217 2025-01-04 0.999057

218 2025-01-05 0.999054

219 2025-01-06 0.999048

I'll stick to YES for now.

Bet Yes because I've once again read a few critical articles about Tether backing. But one of them mentioned that Madoffs fraud took 17 years to unravel. Tether is not that old yet.