Which investment here will give the best return 6 months after May 1st 2024?
Nov 1
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull ETF
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 ETF
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Novo Nordisk stock NVO
TSMC stock
Microsoft stock
Google stock
Nvidia stock NVDA
SPRXX Fidelity Money Market Fund
Proshares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITI)
Domino Pizza DPZ
Gamestop stock
Microstrategy stock MSTR
Qualcomm stock
Reddit stock
Liberty Broadband stock

Exactly six months after May 1st 2024 I will calculate the returns of these choices, and the five with the best ROI will resolve evenly. OTHER will not be chosen.

  • An option must make a positive ROI, otherwise it resolves NO

  • Suggest options in the comments below

  • I reserve the right to refuse any suggestion

  • Spreadsheet to track Here

See: /strutheo/financial-advice-which-five-investm


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answers closing soon but trading will remain open - OTHER cannot win at the end, don't forget!

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull ETF

set up a spreadsheet to help track this and the other related markets: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s1OxlwEalnadLVi8z0OMdV-tToKSRUnu8NpE52AF1hQ/edit#gid=0

reminder that on may 1st i am locking new submissions. trading can continue, but no new options will be added. also, other will not be chosen to win

bought Ṁ10 SPRXX Fidelity Money... YES

VPU, Vanguard utility ETF.

NVO, Novo Nordisk

How are you planning to account for dividends and splits? Add to the stock price at the end?

@KevinBurke hmm yes that sounds fine, if i'd even get them after 6mo

bought Ṁ10 Direxion Daily Semic... NO

@strutheo The meme stocks don’t pay out but eg the Fidelity money market one will pay once a month. Vanguard ETF’s typically pay out quarterly

bought Ṁ10 Answer #646451bed662 YES

MSTR Microstrategy stock 😅

@traders thank you for all the help - i am working on a new version of this market , it will be out soon

in the meantime i will keep this one open, but i am removing the profit incentive and some other whalebait aspects. it is now just a normal market: 'which investment will give the best return 6 months after may 1st'

@strutheo feels like a rug to change the criteria, high volatility stocks bets lost money.

@TonyGao the criteria is the exact same though, people were gambling on the ones with high return

@strutheo (unless im missing something)

@strutheo Ok I mean the criteria didn't change, but it's questionable market manipulation to add external rewards, and even more so to later pull them. Obviously both actions are going to change the meta-criteria.

@TonyGao hmm i see. those rewards were added after betting had started anyway, and only existed for a bit before i was told the market had to be changed , i guess i could NA over that but it seems silly. any mods have an opinion? @BoltonBailey @Joshua

if people were betting only for the USD and not the mana i dont really care if they lose the mana, since they were just as likely to lose that mana on the gamble anyway, right?

@strutheo idc, i just bet nominal for streak bonus, just pointing out that it's bad form.

@TonyGao yea i agree with that :( it is slightly shameful , experiments are messy. if mods think NA is in order i'm fine with it

What was the point of making two markets for this, it seems like they have the same resolution criteria.

@BoltonBailey one is for the top 1, one is for the top 5

Money market fund like VUSXX - invests in US government debt and currently pays ~5% interest per year.

@KevinBurke A ton of the stuff you have there is correlated, like if NVDA goes up or down TSMC is probably going to go up or down. This is not.

@KevinBurke easiest way i could buy/sell this?

@KevinBurke ah looks like i need vanguard, ok maybe

@strutheo Sign up for a Vanguard account, yeah, although any money market fund would work. I am trying to find one without a high minimum investment amount

@KevinBurke Schwab: https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/products/swvxx
Fidelity: https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/31617H201#!

Both of these have higher fees than Vanguard but no minimum investment

@KevinBurke Wealthfront and it’s FDIC insured.

Dunno that anything will beat 5% risk free on a 6 months horizon other than a fluke.

@voodoo FDIC insurance is a bit of a red herring here, if Vanguard fails to pay out then the economy has much, much bigger problems. The government won't let $1 in a money market fund be worth less than $1, and the money market fund's holdings are like 99% US government debt, which is one of the most liquid investments in the world

@KevinBurke I don’t disagree but it’s not like you’re paying anything for it. And it’s easier to open one of those accounts than a brokerage account usually.

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