What will be the first year that an AI gets gold on an International Mathematical Olympiad?
71
2.6kṀ29kresolved Jul 21
100%94%
2025
0.2%
2023
0.3%
2024
1.2%
2026
1.0%
2027
0.7%
2028
0.6%
2029
0.4%
2030
0.4%
2031
0.3%
2032
0.8%
Not by 2032
The market is meant to reflect the resolution criteria of /Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat . I will defer to the creator of that market as well as the people who originally made the bet. Barring no further information, here is how I interpret the resolution criteria as they stand at market creation:
The AI code must be finalized before the release of the IMO it gets gold on.
The AI can be either fully NLP based or fully formal methods based or in between.
The AI getting gold must happen before the end of the year in question.
Only options present at market creation are valid.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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