What will be the first year that an AI gets gold on an International Mathematical Olympiad?
66
2.6kṀ21k
2033
1.1%
2023
1.1%
2024
52%
2025
21%
2026
7%
2027
5%
2028
4%
2029
2%
2030
1.9%
2031
1.8%
2032
3%
Not by 2032

The market is meant to reflect the resolution criteria of /Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat . I will defer to the creator of that market as well as the people who originally made the bet. Barring no further information, here is how I interpret the resolution criteria as they stand at market creation:

  • The AI code must be finalized before the release of the IMO it gets gold on.

  • The AI can be either fully NLP based or fully formal methods based or in between.

  • The AI getting gold must happen before the end of the year in question.

Only options present at market creation are valid.

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