Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
What year will the IMO grand challenge be completed?
25
Ṁ1.1kṀ14k
2033
1.3%
2023
1%
2024
1.1%
2025
6%
2026
20%
2027
8%
2028
6%
2029
5%
2030
5%
2031
6%
2032
40%
not by 2032

This resolves to the (first) year that the IMO grand challenge is completed according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee. This requires an AI to generate machine-checkable proof of all problems on an IMO, and there are more rules here: https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/

I will use the year that the announcement was made by a member of the IMO Grand Challenge committee to decide which year this market resolves as (UTC). Since the code must be publicly available before the first day of the IMO I don't expect any close calls here.

This resolves "not by 2032" if this market hasn't resolved by the end of 2032. It will also resolve "not by 2032" a month after the IMO in 2032 if there is nobody makes a credible claim that the IMO grand challenge might be solved.

This resolves N/A if the IMO grand challenge is either canceled or abandoned (e.g. there is a serious claim that the challenge is completed and nobody of the committee comments on the submission for multiple months).

The creator has blocked themselves from betting in this market.
Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

relevant individual markets:

And here is a market to bet on the time difference between this market and AI getting gold without requiring a formalized proof:

Related market for an AI winning a gold medal that doesn't necessarily produce a machine-checkable proof: