What year will the IMO grand challenge be completed?

Question

This resolves to the (first) year that the IMO grand challenge is completed according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee. This requires an AI to generate machine-checkable proof of all problems on an IMO, and there are more rules here: https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/

I will use the year that the announcement was made by a member of the IMO Grand Challenge committee to decide which year this market resolves as (UTC). Since the code must be publicly available before the first day of the IMO I don't expect any close calls here.

This resolves "not by 2032" if this market hasn't resolved by the end of 2032. It will also resolve "not by 2032" a month after the IMO in 2032 if there is nobody makes a credible claim that the IMO grand challenge might be solved.

This resolves N/A if the IMO grand challenge is either canceled or abandoned (e.g. there is a serious claim that the challenge is completed and nobody of the committee comments on the submission for multiple months).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2027, followed by 2028 and 2029 are most likely. See the market for live updates (28 traders, as of Aug 6, 2026).