Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2026 Los Angeles City Council election for District 15. If the election is not held, the market resolves N/A. In the unlikely event of redistricting between now and the election, this market will follow District 15 even if the number of seats changes.

Background

Tim McOsker is the current incumbent for Los Angeles City Council District 15, having won the seat in 2022 by a significant margin (nearly two-thirds of the vote) against challenger Danielle Sandoval. District 15 includes the communities of San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City, Harbor Gateway, and Watts.

Los Angeles City Council members serve four-year terms, with elections for odd-numbered districts (including District 15) occurring in years divisible by 2 but not by 4 (e.g., 2022, 2026).

Considerations

• California Attorney General Rob Bonta has pushed for redistricting in Los Angeles, which could potentially alter the boundaries of District 15 before the 2026 election.

• Incumbents typically have an advantage in local elections, but this can change based on performance in office and emerging local issues.

• The field of challengers is not yet known and will likely develop closer to the election date.