Eric Lucan and Jackie Elward were the two leading candidates in the California Primaries that took place in early June. At this stage, it is a near certainty that both candidates will move on to the run-off election on November 3, 2026. To cover the unlikely possibility that one of the two candidates is not certified to move on to the run-off election, this market offers a third choice "Other."

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially certified as the winner of the November 3, 2026 general election for the California State Assembly District 12 seat.

The primary source of truth for resolution will be the certified election results published by the California Secretary of State. If the live results look highly predictive and near certain, this market may resolve early.

Background

The June 2, 2026 primary election for California's State Assembly District 12 (covering Marin County and southern Sonoma County) resulted in Marin County Supervisor Eric Lucan (D) and Rohnert Park City Councilmember Jackie Elward (D) advancing to the general election runoff. Because California utilizes a top-two primary system, the general election ballot features these two candidates.