Resolution criteria
Resolves to the option matching the candidate certified by the California Secretary of State as the winner of California State Assembly District 51 in the November 3, 2026 general election (after any recounts/court-ordered adjustments). Primary outcomes do not resolve this market. Verification: California SOS results portal and the final Statement of Vote; LA County Registrar results may be used as corroboration. Links: https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/ and https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results and https://results.lavote.gov/. (sos.ca.gov, sonomacounty.ca.gov)
Background
Election dates: California’s top-two primary is June 2, 2026; the general election is November 3, 2026. (sos.ca.gov)
System: Top-two primary for voter-nominated offices; the top two finishers (any party) advance to November even if one gets >50% in June. (voterguide.sos.ca.gov)
District: AD-51 covers Santa Monica, West Hollywood, Beverly Hills, and parts of Los Angeles (e.g., Hollywood/Westwood). Official district map/info: a51.asmdc.org/district-map; redistricting maps from the Citizens Redistricting Commission. (a51.asmdc.org, wedrawthelines.ca.gov)
Incumbent: Rick Chavez Zbur (D) has held AD-51 since 2022 and was re-elected in 2024 (≈75%). (en.wikipedia.org, abc7.com)
Considerations
AD-51 is strongly Democratic and has recently produced lopsided general results; an intra-Democrat November matchup is plausible under top-two rules. (ballotpedia.org, voterguide.sos.ca.gov)
Term limits permit up to 12 years total in the Legislature for members first elected after 2012; the incumbent remains eligible to run. (clerk.assembly.ca.gov)
1,000