Resolves based on the election outcome per major media calls or secretary of state. Follows the district number through any redistricting Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market is for California's 14th Congressional District (the title previously incorrectly stated 11th district, but this was a typo). Update 2026-04-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves based on the regularly scheduled 2026 election, not any special election that may occur beforehand.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Aisha Wahab, followed by Melissa Hernandez and Other are most likely. See the market for live updates (8 traders, as of Oct 8, 2026).

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 14th Congressional District

Ṁ1.1kṀ5.3k

Dec 31

0.4%

Matt Ortega

0.4%

Abrar Qadir

84%

Aisha Wahab

15%

Melissa Hernandez

0.6%

Other

Resolves based on the election outcome per major media calls or secretary of state.

Follows the district number through any redistricting

Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market is for California's 14th Congressional District (the title previously incorrectly stated 11th district, but this was a typo).

Update 2026-04-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves based on the regularly scheduled 2026 election, not any special election that may occur beforehand.

Politics

2026 US Congressional Elections

Elections

California

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