Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, Brazilians are better off overall compared to January 1, 2026 across three dimensions: economic conditions, health, and employment. Resolution will be based on official data from credible sources including the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Central Bank of Brazil, and international organizations (IMF, World Bank, OECD).

Economic indicators: Real GDP growth, inflation rate, real wages, and household purchasing power measured via official statistics.

Health indicators: Life expectancy, infant mortality, healthcare access metrics, or disease prevalence data from Brazil's Ministry of Health or WHO.

Employment indicators: Unemployment rate, employment levels, labor force participation, and wage growth from IBGE.

The market resolves YES if the majority of these indicators show improvement year-over-year. The market resolves NO if most indicators show deterioration or stagnation. In cases of mixed signals, resolution will be determined by a poll of traders.

Background

Brazil ended 2025 with an unemployment rate of 5.2% in the rolling quarter from September to November, the lowest level since 2012. Employment reached a record more than 103 million people, while the employment rate among the working-age population rose to about 59%. Real wages grew by 4.0% from a year earlier in September.

On economic growth, real GDP is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, before moderating to 1.7% in 2026. Headline inflation cooled in October, rising to 4.7% on a year-ago basis, down from 5.2% in September. With inflation and inflation expectations coming back down, the central bank will likely provide more monetary stimulus in 2026.

Considerations

Brazil faces mounting fiscal challenges, with the government posting a sharper-than-expected primary deficit in November 2025. High interest rates and global policy uncertainty will continue to weigh on investment in 2026, and higher tariffs on many exports to the United States, if maintained, will eventually weigh on exports. The figures have also fueled debate over the composition of new jobs and the persistence of informal employment, suggesting employment gains may not translate uniformly to improved living standards across all segments of the population.