Will Venezuelans be better off at the end of 2026?

Question

The US just attacked Venezuela and reportedly captured President Maduro. Will Venezuelans as a whole be better off at the end of 2026 compared to the end of 2025? Resolves based on my personal knowledge and understanding.

I will not bet in this market. I will try to be unbiased, but I am a Democrat who is generally doubtful of America attacking other countries. I am also not a fan of Maduro.

I will attempt to find trustworthy and objective criteria and reporting to inform the resolution, and may run a poll asking what people think about whether Venezuelans are better off. However, if suitable objective criteria cannot be found, the market will resolve based on my subjective judgment.

A trustworthy poll of Venezuelans themselves asking if they're better off would be the gold standard if available.

This applies to people living in Venezuela, not people of Venezuelan heritage or Venezuelan citizenship.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 40% chance (400 traders, as of Jun 1, 2026).