Valid argument for high p(doom) in @EliezerYudkowsky's upcoming book "If Anyone Builds, Everyone Dies"?
4
100Ṁ63
Dec 31
34%
chance

If the conclusion follows from the premises presented in the book, and this fact is well-indicated by the arguments in the book this market resolves YES. Otherwise, this market resolves NO.

Resolution will be based on the objective judgement of @jim

  • Update 2025-06-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about their personal views, the creator has stated that they do not believe Eliezer Yudkowsky has ever articulated a valid argument for high p(doom) in the past. This provides context for the creator's starting position before reading the book.

  • Update 2025-06-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the term "objective judgement" used in the resolution criteria is tongue-in-cheek.

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I don't think there can be such thing as objective judgement here. What are your current views of his ideas?

@ProjectVictory I don't think he's ever articulated a valid argument for high p doom

@ProjectVictory "objective judgement" is tongue-in-cheek

@ProjectVictory Like, I think Yudkowsky actually agrees with me, but plausibly that's what this book sets out to solve? Not sure.

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