Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

Question

Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text. I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.

P(doom|something else) is not P(doom).

He must explicitly specify a number that is less than 97 or that his number is less than 97 for this market to resolve YES.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 12% chance (94 traders, as of Apr 14, 2026).