IsaacKing avatar
closes Jan 1, 2030
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
7%
chance

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MichaelDickens avatar

I am counting on the judge to not count "Eliezer does shenanigans to make this resolve positive" as reason to resolve positive.

AlanaXiang avatar
Alana Xiang
is predicting NO at 6%

@MichaelDickens But Eliezer bought NO

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 6%

@MichaelDickens If he seriously defrauds other people of real money just to make this resolve YES, that counts. If he just does something silly, that doesn't count.

TassiloNeubauer avatar

@AlanaXiang Not reliable evidence. In the world where Eliezer is planning to do shenanigans, he is also buying no.

EliezerYudkowsky avatar
Eliezer Yudkowsky
bought Ṁ0 of NO

Does prediction market fraud count? What if I bought a bunch of YES in this market using an alternate name, and then revealed on Twitter that I'd committed fraud, and then sold the YES, and then revealed that the fraud in question was prediction market fraud aimed at this market?

EliezerYudkowsky avatar
Eliezer Yudkowsky
is predicting NO at 6%

(I should caution people, before they consider trying to bid the market up based on my asking this question, that I've placed a large limit order for NO at 10%.)

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
is predicting NO at 6%

@EliezerYudkowsky Finally, someone who understands the correct way to use these markets.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 4%

@EliezerYudkowsky No, I won't count that. Market manipulation is par for the course around here.

I do think I might want a better resolution criterion for these sorts of markets than "fraud", as that's both too vague (includes stuff like your example) and too specific (excludes murder).

EliezerYudkowsky avatar
Eliezer Yudkowsky
is predicting NO at 4%

@IsaacKing Well, my betting was premised on that narrow fraud thing! If murder also counts you'd need a whole different market imo.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 4%

@EliezerYudkowsky Yeah, I'm thinking the intention behind these sorts of markets would be better fulfilled by something more like "Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be publicly condemned by a significant fraction of the rationalist and/or EA movement?"

EliezerYudkowsky avatar
Eliezer Yudkowsky
is predicting NO at 4%

@IsaacKing Oh now THAT'S definitely already happened.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 4%

@EliezerYudkowsky Either it was long enough ago that I don't know about it, or it was a small enough fraction that I wouldn't count it.

I could use "is convicted of a crime" as a more unambiguous criterion, but there are a lot of unethical things that aren't crimes, and I'd need to somehow separate out unproblematic crimes like parking violations.

I could use "Will I personally think Eliezer Yudkowsky did something strongly unethical", but that's likely too subjective for people to want to bet a lot.

AlanaXiang avatar
Alana Xiang
is predicting NO at 6%

@EliezerYudkowsky Hold on. Are you saying you wouldn't have bought a bunch of "No" if murder counts 🤔 😲

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting NO at 6%

@AlanaXiang "Pivotal acts"

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 6%

Ok, here's a place to talk about what the best types of scandal markets are:

https://manifold.markets/post/what-are-the-best-scandal-market-re

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 14%

This market is higher than I expected it to be.

DavidBolin avatar

What counts as "fraud" for these markets?

If the statutory rape/blackmail is proved to be true [ Net Negative – Sinceriously ]and it is determined that Yudkowsky was involved, does this resolve yes?

(I think those things are true but I very much doubt anyone can establish them to 99% certainty or produce social consensus on them.)

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 15%

I'm not sure. Have a suggestion for a clearer definition I could use?

DavidBolin avatar
David Bolin
is predicting YES at 14%

@IsaacKing Not really. I just wondered if it was specifically about financial fraud or any sort of public criminal scandal would count.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 14%

@DavidBolin Let's go with financial fraud only, since that's what everyone is upset about right now.

Sinclair avatar

@DavidBolin I'm willing to bet against most odd claims that ziz makes, and willing to bet against this claim in particular

DavidBolin avatar
David Bolin
is predicting YES at 6%

@Sinclair I am not willing to bet because, as I said, I doubt it can ever be proven.

I still think it is true, though; years ago, when the guy (who supposedly end up blackmailing them) initially made the accusations, I thought there was around 70% chance he was telling the truth, and I explained why on Less Wrong (in a very heavily downvoted comment.) So I take Ziz's claims, coming out many years later, as evidence that my initial assessment was correct.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 6%

@DavidBolin have a link to the comment?

EliezerYudkowsky avatar
Eliezer Yudkowsky
is predicting NO at 7%

In case anybody reading this whole thread lacks context on general drama levels associated with Ziz/Sinceriously, it might be useful for them to know that Ziz is still alive, their earlier apparent "boating accident" having proven to be faked - presumably in order to get out of their ongoing court case - after they were found at the scene of a crime at the machete stabbing of a landlord by their fellow coven members. Wish I was joking here, but I'm not. https://twitter.com/jessi_cata/status/1593783526859603970

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 7%

@EliezerYudkowsky While context that provides more information about a person's character is certainly useful, I think if your goal is to convince traders that Ziz's claims should not be trusted, it would be even better to link to an object-level response to their claims, if you've previously written one up.

EliezerYudkowsky avatar
Eliezer Yudkowsky
is predicting NO at 7%

@IsaacKing I've avoided reading Ziz/Sinceriously.

ManifoldDream avatar

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