When will the AfD be the largest party in Germany according to polls? V2
14
1kṀ15122026
63%
May 2025
14%
June 2025
4%
Q3 2025
4%
Q4 2025
5%
first half of 2026
5%
second half of 2026
5%
not before 2027

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Only FORSA & INSA counts
This is the second Version of this Market
Old/First Market: https://manifold.markets/Base/when-will-the-afd-be-the-largest-pa-zUyZgIUtO2
A scenario where there is a draw (i.e., the AfD ties with another party in the polls) will not count as the AfD being the largest party.
The CDU/CSU alliance is counted as a single party when determining which party is the largest according to the polls
If the AfD leads in FORSA but not in INSA (or vice versa), the market will resolve to yes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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