When will the AfD be the largest party in Germany according to polls? V2
14
1kṀ1512
2026
63%
May 2025
14%
June 2025
4%
Q3 2025
4%
Q4 2025
5%
first half of 2026
5%
second half of 2026
5%
not before 2027

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

Only FORSA & INSA counts

This is the second Version of this Market

Old/First Market: https://manifold.markets/Base/when-will-the-afd-be-the-largest-pa-zUyZgIUtO2

  • A scenario where there is a draw (i.e., the AfD ties with another party in the polls) will not count as the AfD being the largest party.

  • The CDU/CSU alliance is counted as a single party when determining which party is the largest according to the polls

  • If the AfD leads in FORSA but not in INSA (or vice versa), the market will resolve to yes.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules