If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 40% after one year in office?
118
1kṀ22k
2026
55%
chance

If he does not win or does not serve a full year in office for any reason, resolves N/A. Resolution source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

  • Update 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Source Update:

    • The market will now use the RCP average approval rating instead of the 538 Job Approval average.

    • All resolution criteria remain the same except for this change in the source metric.

Politics
US Politics
Trump
Republican Party
2024 US Presidential Election
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ABC is shutting down 538. This needs to be cancelled. New version can be made with new resolution source. Other 538 dependent questions are going away

@brianwang Instead of cancelling it, I'm just gonna shift to the RCP average approval instead.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Balasar I am fine with that.

bought Ṁ200 YES

Based upon what poll?

Trump will be over 40% easily!!

bought Ṁ50 YES

Looks like he was actually slightly above 40% for most of his first term https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

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Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?
37% chance
Will Trump's net approval rating be under -5% on Sept 30th?
91% chance
Will Trump's approval rating return to 47%+ before his second term ends?
36% chance
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Will Trump set a new record low approval rating this year? [Below 34.0% on Silver Bulletin]
15% chance
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Will Donald Trump‘s approval drop below 40% before US midterm election
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Will Trump’s approval rating be above 30 at the end of 2025?
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