If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 40% after one year in office?

164

1kṀ52k

Jan 21

98%

chance

ALL

If he does not win or does not serve a full year in office for any reason, resolves N/A. Resolution source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

Update 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Source Update:
- The market will now use the RCP average approval rating instead of the 538 Job Approval average.
- All resolution criteria remain the same except for this change in the source metric.

Update 2026-01-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on whatever RCP approval rating is showing on January 20th at approximately noon.

Market context

2024 US Presidential Election

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bought Ṁ400 NO

bought Ṁ50 NO

What day will you resolve? As currently the average shows a month period. So do you take whatever is showing on Jan 20. Eg. 15 Dec to 15 Jan or do you wait for a later period. Thanks

@Jack1 Whatever is showing on RCP on Jan. 20th, at roughly noon, is what I will resolve according to.

If he dies does this resolve no

@NeoMalthusian If he dies it resolves N/A.

ABC is shutting down 538. This needs to be cancelled. New version can be made with new resolution source. Other 538 dependent questions are going away