
If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 40% after one year in office?
92
1kṀ11k2026
37%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If he does not win or does not serve a full year in office for any reason, resolves N/A. Resolution source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating
Update 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Source Update:
The market will now use the RCP average approval rating instead of the 538 Job Approval average.
All resolution criteria remain the same except for this change in the source metric.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will Trump's approval rating fall below 40% in 2025?
85% chance
What will be President Donalds Trump approval rating on December 31st, 2025?
When will President Trump's approval rating go below 38%?
Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?
40% chance
If Donald Trump becomes the next president, what will his approval rating be a year after assuming office?
38% chance
Will Trump's net approval rating be under -5% on Sept 30th?
86% chance
Will Trump’s approval rating be higher than Biden’s after:
Will Trump’s approval rating be above 30 at the end of 2025?
87% chance
Will Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of his second term be at least as low as Joe Biden’s?
58% chance
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 40% before his death?
22% chance
Sort by:
Looks like he was actually slightly above 40% for most of his first term https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Trump's approval rating fall below 40% in 2025?
85% chance
What will be President Donalds Trump approval rating on December 31st, 2025?
When will President Trump's approval rating go below 38%?
Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?
40% chance
If Donald Trump becomes the next president, what will his approval rating be a year after assuming office?
38% chance
Will Trump's net approval rating be under -5% on Sept 30th?
86% chance
Will Trump’s approval rating be higher than Biden’s after:
Will Trump’s approval rating be above 30 at the end of 2025?
87% chance
Will Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of his second term be at least as low as Joe Biden’s?
58% chance
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 40% before his death?
22% chance