Will Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of his second term be at least as low as Joe Biden’s?

Ṁ100Ṁ511

2029

81%

chance

ALL

Based on 538 aggregate approval on January 20 2029 (Trump) vs January 20 2025 (Biden). A suitable replacement aggregator will be found if necessary.

Resolves N/A if either Trump isn’t president on the morning of January 20 2029.

If Trump refuses to leave office the question will still resolve based on his approval rating on January 20.

Tie resolves TRUE.

Biden’s approval rating on Jan 20 2025: 37%

Update 2026- 538 is of course gone; my current plan is to subscribe to the Silver Bulletin for a month to get access to its Biden polling and compare it to its current Trump polling; that is, the legacy 538 approval rating for Biden will not be used.

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opened a Ṁ50 NO at 48% order

There is a cult of personality dynamic type thing going on with Trump that was not going on with Biden. He will have to do something really really bad for his approval rating to dip below 37%. Something worse than J6 for sure.

@AristotelisKostelenos At the time you wrote this comment I probably would have agreed. But Silver Bulletin puts him at 37.8% and we haven't even hit the midterms.

sold Ṁ9 NO

@BenTensor lmao. Thanks to you I remembered this and sold my position. Yeah he's definitely gonna crater. I mean starting pointless wars that would raise the price of fuel is one way to do it.