Will Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of his second term be at least as low as Joe Biden’s?
19
Ṁ100Ṁ4052029
55%
chance
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Based on 538 aggregate approval on January 20 2029 (Trump) vs January 20 2025 (Biden). A suitable replacement aggregator will be found if necessary.
Resolves N/A if either Trump isn’t president on the morning of January 20 2029.
If Trump refuses to leave office the question will still resolve based on his approval rating on January 20.
Tie resolves TRUE.
Biden’s approval rating on Jan 20 2025: 37%
Update 2026- 538 is of course gone; my current plan is to subscribe to the Silver Bulletin for a month to get access to its Biden polling and compare it to its current Trump polling; that is, the legacy 538 approval rating for Biden will not be used.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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