Will Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of his second term be at least as low as Joe Biden’s? | Manifold

Will Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of his second term be at least as low as Joe Biden’s?

18

Ṁ100Ṁ400

2029

52%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Based on 538 aggregate approval on January 20 2029 (Trump) vs January 20 2025 (Biden). A suitable replacement aggregator will be found if necessary.

Resolves N/A if either Trump isn’t president on the morning of January 20 2029.

If Trump refuses to leave office the question will still resolve based on his approval rating on January 20.

Tie resolves TRUE.

Biden’s approval rating on Jan 20 2025: 37%

Market context

Trump's Second Term

Republican Party

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opened a Ṁ50 NO at 48% order

There is a cult of personality dynamic type thing going on with Trump that was not going on with Biden. He will have to do something really really bad for his approval rating to dip below 37%. Something worse than J6 for sure.

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