Will Trump set a new record low approval rating this year? [Below 34.0% on Silver Bulletin] | Manifold

Will Trump set a new record low approval rating this year? [Below 34.0% on Silver Bulletin]

120

150Ṁ16k

Dec 31

17%

chance

1H

6H

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1M

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Resolves YES if Trump's approval rating is below 34.0% at any point this year on Silver Bulletin's approval rating tracker.

Resolves NO if it stays at or above 34.0% (Trump's rating floor from his first term) for the entirety of the year.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin

If the Silver Bulletin tracker goes down, stops updating, or dramatically changes its methodology to an extent that it no longer reflects the "approval rating" of Trump, before the end of the year, I will resolve to my rough estimate of the average PROBABILITY of the market over the week prior to the announcement of that happening, or to N/A if there is market manipulation in that regard.

I will not bet in this market.

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bought Ṁ390 NO

This market has been ridiculously mispriced for its entire existence

How did you get Noah Smith to retweet you?

@MaxA I promised him rabbit treats

also are you MaxA from Metaculus? Wanna be friends?

opened a Ṁ50 NO at 90% order

@bens who else? Let's!

reposted

Hmm, I can’t bet on this market, but 96% seems a tad high 😆

@bens some very confident and/or enthusiastic people here lol

bought Ṁ10 YES

good market! 📉

People are also trading

Will Trump's net approval rating be under -5% on Sept 30th?

If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 40% after one year in office?

If Donald Trump becomes the next president, what will his approval rating be a year after assuming office?

Will Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of his second term be at least as low as Joe Biden’s?

When will President Trump's approval rating go below 38%?

Trump's Republican approval below 80%?

Related questions

Will Trump's net approval rating be under -5% on Sept 30th?

If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 40% after one year in office?

If Donald Trump becomes the next president, what will his approval rating be a year after assuming office?

Will Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of his second term be at least as low as Joe Biden’s?

When will President Trump's approval rating go below 38%?

Trump's Republican approval below 80%?

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