Will the United States enter into Treaty with Taiwan to protect it from Chinese invasion by the end of 2023?
US Politics•China•Taiwan
37
224
Ṁ365
2025
2%
chance

The US purchased Alaska in 1867 before absorbing it as a state in 1959. Hawaii also became a state in 1959 50+ years after the collapse of the indigenous government.

Taiwan has established itself as a fully autonomous political culture based on Western values (for the most part) and poses an existential threat to the Chinese Communist Party.

Resolves YES if the US and Taiwan enter into diplomatic treaty to grant full diplomatic and military support and protection the territory from potential PLA invasion.

Jul 29, 5:01pm: Will the United States purchase Taiwan to protect it from Chinese invasion? → Will the United States enter into Treaty with Taiwan to protect it from Chinese invasion?

Aug 1, 12:16pm: Will the United States enter into Treaty with Taiwan to protect it from Chinese invasion? → Will the United States enter into Treaty with Taiwan to protect it from Chinese invasion by the end of 2023?

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predicts NO

I will admit I voted on this under the assumption it was a defence treaty...will buy more NO now.

I think perhaps this could be better worded?

@JoshuaWilkes This is a good point. I will update.

“Western democracy”: aka no one has any confidence in the gov’t …rated the press at 28.4%, the Legislative Yuan (LY, the parliament) at 27.6%, and political parties at 22.4%….
“Only 23% thought that democracy was more important than economic development.”
Leaving aside the hubris of thinking they want to belong to the US, or the insanity of admitting a supposedly sovereign democracy as a “state” (which post the Civil War have very few rights or sovereignty), or how exactly all this happens without human extinction, gonna go with NO.
@Gigacasting totally understand. But Taiwan is a political organization not an economic zone. Whether it’s KMT style autocracy of Chiang Kai-shek or the Sun Yatsen style Chinese republic of prewar China doesn’t matter. It just can’t be CCP controlled. The prospect of “reeducation” will not be accepted because of the potential long term economic benefits. No way.
@Gigacasting Taiwan currently has less political or diplomatic legitimacy than some micro nations. So hard to see how the status quo gives them any long term security or status of any kind. It’s silly to think anyone in that circumstance wouldn’t instantly jump at the chance of US citizenship or at least formal recognition.
bought Ṁ100 of NO
Under what conditions does this resolve NO?
@MattP This is a question specifically about whether or not this will be done as a covert diplomatic strategy or foreign policy. It wouldn't count if done following an aggressive action by PLA.
predicts NO
@BTE understood, but what I'm asking is in what circumstances would you resolve NO? The question doesn't mention any close date, so presumably if the US never does this the question will just stay open forever, correct? Aka no payout for NO aka no reason for people to bet NO.
@MattP I see. I will add “by the end of 2023.” That work?
predicts NO
@BTE yep, that's a much more actionable question.
bought Ṁ100 of NO
Your question title and resolution criteria don't really seem the same to me. Can you clarify?
@jack haha, as soon as I published this I knew you were going to make this comment. damn, I am way too into this site...
sold Ṁ39 of NO
@BTE :)

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