Will the US evacuate its citizens from Taiwan before Dec 2027? | Manifold

Will the US evacuate its citizens from Taiwan before Dec 2027?

6

100Ṁ245

2028

33%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This is intended to be an easily-resolved proxy for: will the US think an invasion of Taiwan is imminent?

Resolves YES if any of the following is true:
- US government organizes more than 5 flights to remove US citizens from Taiwan, which are reported as "evacuation" flights or similar.
- US government urges US citizens to leave Taiwan; subsequently, the total number of US citizens in Taiwan falls in half over a 6 month or shorter period.

Otherwise resolves NO in December 2027.

Judged by mainstream US media reports. There are currently ~11,000 US citizens in Taiwan, per Wikipedia.

I will not hold any exposure to this market (except during the first hour of trading.)

China Taiwan potential conflict

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opened a Ṁ21 YES at 14% order

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