Conditional on China Not Supplying Arm to Russia in 2023, will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2028?
Conditional on China Not Supplying Arm to Russia in 2023, will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2028?
6
150Ṁ2462028
27%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves, no later than end of 2028, with criterion identical to the first market below, with the exception that, if the second market resolves to something other than No, this market will resolve to N/A immediately.
In the case that the invasion occurs before end of 2023, this resolves N/A.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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