Conditional on China Not Supplying Arm to Russia in 2023, will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2028?
Basic
5
Ṁ2222028
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves, no later than end of 2028, with criterion identical to the first market below, with the exception that, if the second market resolves to something other than No, this market will resolve to N/A immediately.
In the case that the invasion occurs before end of 2023, this resolves N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
26% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
32% chance
If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?
34% chance
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
33% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
30% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
26% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
34% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before the end of Ukraine-Russian war?
25% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
41% chance