Will Tesla have a live demo of an Optimus robot at AI day Sept 30th?

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resolved Oct 1

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Resolves YES if it happens.

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Elon musk

Tesla AI Day

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OPTIMUS ROBOT

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/BTE/will-teslas-optimus-robot-be-contro /BTE/will-there-be-more-than-one-model-o

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INTERESTING ELON MARKETS UNRELATED TO TESLA AI DAY

https://manifold.markets/post/predictions-for-the-tesla-ai-day

@FRCassarino Great post!

predictedNO

3:1 that Tesla delivers anything on time (much less after the head of AI left and last year they had a gimmick man in a suit) is 🤔

predictedNO

Elon shows good demos not some roomba—still expecting a video where nothing can go wrong

When first announcing the project last year, Musk said that Tesla would have a working prototype by the end of 2022, and recently, the CEO even said that the company aims to start production of the robot in 2023.

predictedNO

It’s Elon, wouldn’t be shocked if it takes until 2025. He can’t show off junk, very high odds they just show a video simulation that has a wow factor more than a sub-roomba quality robot

What constitutes live demo? What level of capability? Walking? Carrying something? Both?

@Charlie Maybe @BTE could resolve to a percentage: 0 if no demo, 100% for an impressive demo, and anything in between according to @BTE's judgment if it seems limited enough to not fully count?

@dreev @charlie Sorry guys, got busy with work. I say it resolves positively if it an actual robot and not a guy in a robot suit like it was at the last Tesla event. It has to be passable as a true Tesla invention too. No Tesla wrap on Boston Robotics hardware. I mean, they barely source any components for their vehicles so I would definitely expect it to be all Tesla inside and out.