Will resolve when a Starship enters orbit or by the end of the year. Apr 30, 9:36pm: For clarification a complete orbit is necessary. So the 3/4 orbital Starship orbital test flight as planned would not count.
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 4:59 pm
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@lu Top one is determined by Scott Alexander, who would probably count a suborbital flight that still goes around most of the Earth, which might be the plan for the initial flight. The bottom market explicitly doesn't count this, and only counts a trajectory that would make a stable orbit.
@LivInTheLookingGlass I don't actually remember why I set it like that. Is it seen as bad form to extend the closing date?
@SamuelMillerick When you do, make a comment so stakeholders can be notified of the change.
Time to see whether I'm still too optimistic on these pronouncements (https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1572563987258290177?s=20&t=aOvHE2XJc38dcL-hQ5TLLQ).