Will SpaceX Launch a Starship into orbit this year (2022).
ScienceElon muskSpaceSpacex
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Will resolve when a Starship enters orbit or by the end of the year. Apr 30, 9:36pm: For clarification a complete orbit is necessary. So the 3/4 orbital Starship orbital test flight as planned would not count.

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 4:59 pm

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Should be <1%. https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/rocket-report-first-uk-launch-slips-to-2023-ukrainian-rocket-startup-perseveres/amp/

Arb - should be the same as OP

@lu Top one is determined by Scott Alexander, who would probably count a suborbital flight that still goes around most of the Earth, which might be the plan for the initial flight. The bottom market explicitly doesn't count this, and only counts a trajectory that would make a stable orbit.

predicted YES

@Mqrius huh, thanks

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 4:59 pm

Why close in October when you can't resolve until January?

@LivInTheLookingGlass I don't actually remember why I set it like that. Is it seen as bad form to extend the closing date?

predicted NO

@SamuelMillerick When you do, make a comment so stakeholders can be notified of the change.

predicted NO

when you think about it, a dragon capsule is a kind of starship... 🤔

Time to see whether I'm still too optimistic on these pronouncements (https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1572563987258290177?s=20&t=aOvHE2XJc38dcL-hQ5TLLQ).

Given all the work on payload deployer, it's possible they will try to got for full orbit right away after all
predicted YES
For clarity we will say no. A complete orbit is necessary.
predicted YES
@BoltonBailey As I originally imagined the question the answer would be no. But it looks like I have phrased it unclearly. Would the test flight involved described involve reaching the full speed required for orbit or would it always be a suborbital speed. This question could have been phrased a lot better.
predicted NO
@SamuelMillerick does Starship going ~3/4 of the way around the earth and landing near Hawaii, as is planned for the "Starship orbital test flight" describe here https://apps.fcc.gov/els/GetAtt.html?id=273481 count for a positive resolution?
predicted NO
https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-starship-reach-orbit-in-2022 https://manifold.markets/DAL59/will-starship-reach-orbit-by-the-en Similar markets
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/29/faa-delays-environmental-decision-on-spacexs-starship-launches-to-may.html Yet another FAA delay.
Arbing the other market
Arbing

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