Will SpaceX Launch a Starship into orbit this year (2022).
resolved Jan 1

Will resolve when a Starship enters orbit or by the end of the year. Apr 30, 9:36pm: For clarification a complete orbit is necessary. So the 3/4 orbital Starship orbital test flight as planned would not count.

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 4:59 pm

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

Arb - should be the same as OP

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@lu Top one is determined by Scott Alexander, who would probably count a suborbital flight that still goes around most of the Earth, which might be the plan for the initial flight. The bottom market explicitly doesn't count this, and only counts a trajectory that would make a stable orbit.

predicted YES

@Mqrius huh, thanks

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 4:59 pm

bought Ṁ152 of NO

Why close in October when you can't resolve until January?

@LivInTheLookingGlass I don't actually remember why I set it like that. Is it seen as bad form to extend the closing date?

predicted NO

@SamuelMillerick When you do, make a comment so stakeholders can be notified of the change.

predicted NO

when you think about it, a dragon capsule is a kind of starship... 🤔

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Time to see whether I'm still too optimistic on these pronouncements (https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1572563987258290177?s=20&t=aOvHE2XJc38dcL-hQ5TLLQ).

bought Ṁ10 of YES
Given all the work on payload deployer, it's possible they will try to got for full orbit right away after all
predicted YES
For clarity we will say no. A complete orbit is necessary.
predicted YES
@BoltonBailey As I originally imagined the question the answer would be no. But it looks like I have phrased it unclearly. Would the test flight involved described involve reaching the full speed required for orbit or would it always be a suborbital speed. This question could have been phrased a lot better.
predicted NO
@SamuelMillerick does Starship going ~3/4 of the way around the earth and landing near Hawaii, as is planned for the "Starship orbital test flight" describe here https://apps.fcc.gov/els/GetAtt.html?id=273481 count for a positive resolution?
bought Ṁ7 of NO
Arbing the other market
bought Ṁ20 of NO

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