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Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?
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Dec 31
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“My prediction is next year we’ll have over a thousand, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”

https://x.com/SmokeAwayyy/status/1801400924096839732

This was a prediction made during the Tesla 2024 Annual Stockholder Meeting.

I take "working" to mean autonomously deployed in factories and performing productive labor.

  • Update 2025-06-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified their interpretation of productive labor:

    • Robots dancing as entertainers for the human factory workforce would be considered as performing productive labor.

  • Update 2026-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A robot counts as 'working at Tesla' if it meets all of the following:

    • Deployed on a Tesla facility floor in a capacity intended to contribute to operations

    • Switched on and active (not just stacked in a corner)

    • Robots still being supervised, still learning, or spending some time on training still count

    • Robots solely in R&D labs and never deployed to an operational facility do not count

    • The 10,000 threshold must be met all at once, not cumulatively

  • Update 2026-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A scenario where robots must recharge (e.g., half recharging at any given time) still counts toward the 10,000 threshold, as long as 10,000 are deployed at once in a qualifying capacity.

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Best info I can find at the moment is this July 2026 report from technology.org. Quick summary:

- In Jan 2026, during the 2025Q4 earnings call, Musk said Optimus was "not in usage in our factories in a material way" and units were “primarily for learning, not productive tasks”.
- As of Jul 2026, production of Optimus robots at the Fremont factory had still not begun.
- Although there are claims circulating online that Tesla has "1000 robots deployed at factories", there is no statement by Tesla or Musk to that effect.
- Other robot makers do have robots logging actual hours on factory floors, namely Figure AI (at BMW) and Agility Robotics (at nine facilities including Toyota).

Also, during the 2026Q2 earnings call, on 22 Jul 2026, Tesla said new Optimus robots go to "Optimus academy", something to do with training and data collection, not factory work.

@pietrokc Hmm I was in process of writing question on Optimus academy below when this was posted. I have posted it thread below. I am taking an Optimus academy as an "R&D lab" but I wanted to check.

Being pushed up to 14% seems weird to me I am sort of expecting Optimus to be many months perhaps even years at academy AI development level before being released into real usage as opposed to training but perhaps I will be surprised and the AI will be ready enough quickly.

I think the reports of 1000-1200 are mainly Optimus version 2 robots, i.e. clearly only development models.

Grok suggests:
"Tesla’s earlier guidance (Q1 2026 earnings) targeted the start of production in late July or August 2026. Language on the Q2 call softened somewhat to “soon” / “later this year,” but multiple sources now indicate the line is active.

A Motley Fool report published August 27, 2026, explicitly stated that Optimus “just entered production at Fremont.” Follow-up coverage (including August 30) has repeated that production has begun on the converted line.

Early units are expected to go primarily into Tesla’s internal Optimus Academy for training and data collection rather than external sales or high-volume productive work."

"Primarily"? Well yeah, seems like either that or into storage or maybe a few can do demo publicity stunts?.

@ChristopherRandles nothing weird, was paying to get price discovery, with the news that generation 3 is in production

@ChristopherRandles external sales of course wouldn't count, the market is for optimus employed at tesla, like dancing at the factory floor to entertain

How are we going to adjudicate "productive labor"?

@pietrokc I think I'd have to accept "dancing as entertainers for the human factory workforce" as productive

@DavidFWatson What if some robots are doing a mix of things E.g.:

A Some is learning tasks some of which are ones humans workers perform at Tesla but this is only for training and once task is learnt they stop doing this and move on to another training task. This is presumably done under supervision.


B Some is testing of training (possibly mildly? useful work but involves more supervision than the task would normally involve) or of testing of interaction with humans while doing tasks.

C While walking corridors on a non productive training task anyone can stop them to ask a question or directions which reduces needs for receptionists

Do you count the robot
1. Fully if there is even the slightest thing that is productive and autonomous even if supervised?
2. Only count a time apportionment of robot's time that is doing productive and autonomous work even if it is supervised?
3. Only count a time apportionment of robot's time that is doing productive and autonomous work unsupervised?
Or do we exclude anything that is training?
Or something else?

Getting the necessary info might be difficult? If they haven't produced 10,000 that will make resolution easy, but suppose we find out 12,000 or 15,000 have been produced. Having some feel for how you will count per above might be rather useful to help assess which way it should go or is likely to go.

@ChristopherRandles A robot counts as ‘working at Tesla’ if it is deployed on a Tesla facility floor in a capacity intended to contribute to operations — even if it is still being supervised, still learning new tasks, or spending some of its time on training. Robots that exist solely in an R&D lab and have never been deployed to an operational facility do not count.

They can be ineffectual and still count, but they have to actually be deployed and there should be evidence that they’re.. you know, switched on. (Not just stacked in the corner).

Also needs to be all at once, not cumulative. I’m not sure how they deploy 5k, pull them, then deploy 7k, but if that happens it doesn’t count.

@DavidFWatson Silly hypothetical, but what if it is 5 000 night shift, 5 000 day shift?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen maybe that don’t have removable rechargeable batteries so half have to be recharging at any time? 😆 sure, that counts as a yes resolution.

@DavidFWatson Re "A robot counts as ‘working at Tesla’ if it is deployed on a Tesla facility floor in a capacity intended to contribute to operations — even if it is still being supervised, still learning new tasks, or spending some of its time on training. Robots that exist solely in an R&D lab and have never been deployed to an operational facility do not count."

Suppose there is an "Optimus academy" at Freemont and the building(s) contain an Optimus production line and also R&D training and Optimus AI development facility. Further, let us suppose almost all Optimus robots are there or stored somewhere rather than being in use in other operational non-Optimus production factories.

I would hope this wouldn't count as "deployed to an operational facility" just because of the optimus production line happens to be in the same facility. I am OK with any Optimus robots being used on the Optimus production line for producing other optimus robots counting towards the 10,000 or maybe only if Optimus robots are expected to continue doing that job rather than it being training exercises for less than a couple of weeks? However those robots there for training / AI development would not count? Can you confirm or explain how your interpretation differs?

At least part of what I am asking is:
Does an "R&D lab" cease to be a 'lab' if it is at some large scale like a 20,000 Optimus robot intensive Optimus AI development facility or if there is a production line for Optimus on site?

@ChristopherRandles I think it's clear that robots exclusively attending Optimus academy will not count just because they're in the same building where actual work happens.

I don't understand your question about scale.

@MolbyDick thoughts?

@pietrokc agreed

Also, @MolbyDick has been inactive for like a year

@pietrokc Agreed about "just because", though of course if the academy does real production work in the side, that would be a mouse of a different colour

Yes obviously

@MolbyDick you gonna make a bet??

@DavidFWatson if I had mana 😭🤣

@MolbyDick presumably you've already taken out the daily loan?

@DavidFWatson oh wow, ok, I just looked at your all time profit..... Thank you for your contribution to the platform I guess....?

@DavidFWatson no, you can do that? How do I take out a loan

@DavidFWatson and yes hahaha, it was TSLA stock price prediction that I missed by $8-9 dollars I believe

@MolbyDick it's at the top of the search page, you can use it once per day

@MolbyDick well well