[tweet]Add your own answers on what you think this means! Update 2025-11-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the "flying car" answer: A car that uses hydraulic suspension to briefly lift/hop off the ground (like the BYD Yangwang U9 example) would count as a flying car for this market's resolution purposes. Update 2025-11-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market close date will be extended as long as the creator thinks is reasonable, given that Elon's timelines are often delayed beyond his original promises.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, It's a new Tesla Roadster, followed by It's a collaboration with SpaceX and A demo actually happens by the end of April 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (66 traders, as of Mar 22, 2026).

What will be true of Elon's promised "most epic demo ever" from Tesla?

MANIFOLD

What will be true of Elon's promised "most epic demo ever" from Tesla?

Ṁ1.4kṀ6.4k

Apr 1

76%

It's a new Tesla Roadster

65%

It's a collaboration with SpaceX

28%

A demo actually happens by the end of April 2026

28%

It's a flying car (see comments)

27%

It's related to Optimus

24%

Manifold considers it "epic" (according to poll)

20%

It's related to Robotaxi

It's a boat car or submersible car (can travel in or on water)

Add your own answers on what you think this means!

Update 2025-11-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the "flying car" answer: A car that uses hydraulic suspension to briefly lift/hop off the ground (like the BYD Yangwang U9 example) would count as a flying car for this market's resolution purposes.

Update 2025-11-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market close date will be extended as long as the creator thinks is reasonable, given that Elon's timelines are often delayed beyond his original promises.

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

What will be true of the next Tesla roadster?

Which of these Elon's promises will be true? (Q125 financial results)

Will Elon Musk unveil a rocket car collaboration between SpaceX and Tesla as stated to Don Lemon by EOY 2035?

74% chance

Will Elon Musk get to drive a COBRA CAR by EOY2029?

48% chance

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

22% chance

When will a Tesla Robovan offer its first public, autonomous ride?

1/6/30

Will Tesla have a 0-60mph < 1 sec car before 2028?

Sort by:

@traders Elon originally promised this demo by the end of the year, but as we all know, his timelines are often overly optimistic. I'll keep extending the close date for this as long as I think is reasonable.

It may arrive April 1st: https://www.autoevolution.com/news/musk-trolls-tesla-roadster-reservation-holders-with-a-second-unveiling-on-april-fools-day-260611.html

@TimothyJohnson5c16 So maybe before end of year (not sure which year though).

@niklaswik Lol, I added an option to bet on whether it happens by the end of April.

@GraemeStuart what's the definition of "flying" for this market? I think a truly "flying" car is extremely unlikely, but a car that could briefly hover or hop is plausible -- how would this resolve for that scenario?

@DanHomerick if it leaves the ground it counts

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 42% order

@GraemeStuart and if the wheels leave the ground, but a ground-effect skirt remains in contact with the road? That is, utilizing same principle as a hovercraft?

Edit: the "flying" bit may just be a useless gimmick, but if they already have a very strong fan for generating downforce / low pressure, then reversing it for a hovercraft effect may not take much more hardware.